Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The global iron ore shipment volume has rebounded, and port inventories decreased slightly last week after a significant increase. Currently, the inventory is relatively high. As the loss - making area of steel mills expands, the negative feedback on raw materials is strong. The iron ore fundamentals are generally weak in both expectation and reality, and it is expected to show a weak and fluctuating trend overall [5][33] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Disk Analysis - This section includes futures price, spread analysis (basis), and position analysis. However, specific analysis content is not provided [7][8][12] 2. Important Market Information - In October 2025, the global crude steel output was 143.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9%; from January to October, the global crude steel output was 1.5176 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. The People's Bank of China maintained the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) at 3% and 3.5% respectively, remaining unchanged for six consecutive months [14] 3. Supply - side Situation - As of October 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 111.309 million tons, a decrease of 5.021 million tons from the previous month; the import average price was $100.56 per ton, an increase of $3.61 per ton from the previous month. In the same period, Australia's iron ore shipment volume was 66.842 million tons, an increase of 1.671 million tons from the previous month; Brazil's iron ore shipment volume was 29.255 million tons, an increase of 1.057 million tons from the first half of the month [20][21] 4. Demand - side Situation - The section involves 247 steel mills' daily average hot metal output, profitability rate, and Shanghai's terminal wire and screw procurement volume. However, specific analysis content is not provided [22][26][27] 5. Fundamental Analysis - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.19%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.62% and a year - on - year increase of 0.26%; the daily average hot metal output was 2.3628 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.48 million tons; the steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.89%. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 150.5465 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 750,600 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2992 million tons, an increase of 297,000 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 157.3485 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 779,900 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.4339 million tons, an increase of 311,000 tons [30][32] 6. Market Outlook - The global iron ore shipment volume has rebounded, and port inventories decreased slightly last week after a significant increase. Currently, the inventory is relatively high. As the loss - making area of steel mills expands, the negative feedback on raw materials is strong. The iron ore fundamentals are generally weak in both expectation and reality, and it is expected to show a weak and fluctuating trend overall [5][33] 7. Operation Strategy - Unilateral: Go short lightly on rallies; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [6][34]
华龙期货铁矿周报-20251124
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-11-24 03:09