尿素早评：价格底部或逐步明朗-20251124

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The current urea price bottom may gradually become clear. Urea's recent rebound is limited, and its valuation remains relatively low, reflecting the current situation of strong supply and weak demand. The new round of export quotas will alleviate the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price. The low price may stimulate storage - enterprises to enter the market. Strategically, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - to - long term [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures Price - UR01 decreased from 1665.00 yuan/ton to 1654.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.00 yuan or - 0.66%. UR05 decreased from 1735.00 yuan/ton to 1728.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.00 yuan or - 0.40%. UR09 decreased from 1739.00 yuan/ton to 1734.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.00 yuan or - 0.29% [1] Domestic Spot Price - Shandong increased from 1640.00 yuan/ton to 1650.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan or 0.61%. Shanxi remained unchanged at 1510.00 yuan/ton. Henan increased from 1630.00 yuan/ton to 1650.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.00 yuan or 1.23%. Hebei remained unchanged at 1650.00 yuan/ton. Northeast increased from 1690.00 yuan/ton to 1700.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan or 0.59%. Jiangsu increased from 1620.00 yuan/ton to 1640.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.00 yuan or 1.23% [1] Basis and Spread - Shandong spot - UR decreased from 17.00 yuan/ton to - 78.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95.00 yuan. The 01 - 05 spread decreased from - 74.00 yuan/ton to - 70.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.00 yuan [1] Upstream Cost - The anthracite price in Henan remained unchanged at 1030.00 yuan/ton, in Shanxi remained unchanged at 930.00 yuan/ton [1] Downstream Price - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong remained unchanged at 3000.00 yuan/ton, in Henan remained unchanged at 2550.00 yuan/ton. The melamine price in Shandong remained unchanged at 5134.00 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5200.00 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1666 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1669 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1651 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1654 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1657 yuan/ton, and the position was 243238 lots [1]