中泰期货晨会纪要-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro - Financial: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for stock index futures and maintain a bullish view on the bond market. For stock index futures, the market is volatile, and the short - term decline may lead to a rebound, but the anti - fragility is weak. For the bond market, although the LPR did not cut interest rates as expected, monetary easing is expected, and attention should be paid to MLF renewal and central bank bond - buying [12][13]. - Black: In the short term, the steel and ore market is expected to fluctuate, and a bearish view is maintained in the medium - to - long term. For coal and coke, the price may continue to decline in the short term, and there is a supply contraction expectation in the long term. For ferroalloys, it is recommended to focus on long - term opportunities to buy ferrosilicon and consider the "long ferrosilicon, short ferromanganese" arbitrage [15][16][17]. - Non - ferrous and New Materials: For zinc, it is recommended to hold short positions at high levels. For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to buy on dips. For industrial silicon, it oscillates weakly, and for polysilicon, it continues to oscillate [22][23][24]. - Agricultural Products: Cotton oscillates at a low level, sugar trends bearishly, eggs may have a short - term small increase but the overall situation is not optimistic, apples oscillate, corn may face a callback, jujubes are recommended to wait and see, and for live pigs, short - term short positions are recommended for near - month contracts [26][27][29]. - Energy and Chemicals: For crude oil, it is recommended to short at high levels. Fuel oil prices follow crude oil prices. Plastics oscillate weakly. Methanol's near - month contracts are recommended to be treated with a weak - oscillation idea, and far - month contracts can be considered for long positions after a rebound. Other products also have corresponding market trends and operation suggestions [36][37][41]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - Japan's Prime Minister hopes to build a constructive and stable China - Japan relationship, and China responds that Japan should take practical actions. Trump's administration plans to revoke the Ministry of Education, and the US Secretary of Education will transfer most federal education projects and staff to other six federal agencies [9][10]. 3.2 Macro - Financial 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market declined significantly, affected by the overnight plunge in US stocks. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in December has changed. The EPMI value shows a decline after a previous increase. The short - term decline is large, and there may be a rebound, but the anti - fragility is weak. The strategy is to maintain a wait - and - see attitude [12]. 3.2.2 Bond Futures - The LPR did not cut interest rates as expected, but monetary easing is expected. The capital market is balanced and loose. The bond market is expected to be bullish, and attention should be paid to MLF renewal and central bank bond - buying [13]. 3.3 Black 3.3.1 Steel and Ore - Policy - related events have basically landed, and the market may return to fundamentals. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is improving. Steel mills' profits are low, and iron - water production may decline. The inventory of five major steel products is still high compared with last year. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and a bearish view is maintained in the medium - to - long term [15][16]. 3.3.2 Coal and Coke - The price may continue to decline in the short term. The supply of coking coal may increase in the short term but has a contraction expectation in the long term. The potential negative feedback risk restricts the price [17]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - Manganese silicon does not have the conditions for large - scale production cuts, while ferrosilicon may see large - scale production cuts if the price remains low. It is recommended to focus on long - term opportunities to buy ferrosilicon and consider the "long ferrosilicon, short ferromanganese" arbitrage [17]. 3.4 Non - ferrous and New Materials 3.4.1 Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory has decreased. The zinc price is in a downward - oscillation trend with the possibility of a staged rebound. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels [22]. 3.4.2 Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals are weakening, but the long - term demand is positive. It is recommended to buy on dips [23]. 3.4.3 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon oscillates weakly with no prominent supply - demand contradiction. Polysilicon continues to oscillate, and the market is still waiting for the establishment of a platform company [24][25]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The cost provides support, and it oscillates at a low level [26]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The supply - demand situation is bearish. The new - sugar listing pressure and low - cost imports suppress the price, but the cost provides support [27][28]. 3.5.3 Eggs - The spot price may have a short - term small increase, but the inventory is high, and the futures near - month contracts are under pressure. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [29][30]. 3.5.4 Apples - The apple storage is almost finished, and the market oscillates. Consumption dynamics should be closely monitored [31]. 3.5.5 Corn - The spot price has rebounded, but the supply pressure is still large. It may face a callback, and attention should be paid to the pressure on far - month contracts [32]. 3.5.6 Jujubes - The prices in production and sales areas are falling, and it is recommended to wait and see [33]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - The short - term supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is limited. The near - month contracts are recommended to be shorted at high levels. The long - term situation is positive due to the decline in the number of fertile sows [33][34]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand expectations affect the price. The long - term trend is downward, and it is recommended to short at high levels [36]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - The price follows the crude oil price. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The focus is on the impact of sanctions on the supply [37]. 3.6.3 Plastics - The supply pressure is large, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [37][38]. 3.6.4 Rubber - The domestic supply is approaching the end of the season, and the cost provides support. However, factors such as EUDR postponement and high inventory suppress the price, and it oscillates weakly [38]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - The price is weakening, and it is recommended to hold short - call strategies or short at high levels [39][40]. 3.6.6 Methanol - The supply - demand situation is weak, and the inventory is high. The near - month contracts are recommended to be treated with a weak - oscillation idea, and far - month contracts can be considered for long positions after a rebound [41]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - The spot price is weakening, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [42]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the price bottom after the winter - storage game [42][43]. 3.6.9 Polyester Industry Chain - The cost is weakening, and the industry chain is expected to continue to decline [44]. 3.6.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The short - term bullish factors are exhausted, and the price may turn weak [45]. 3.6.11 Pulp - The market sentiment is weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate widely. Attention should be paid to old - warehouse receipt digestion and spot transactions [45]. 3.6.12 Logs - The fundamentals are weakening, and the price is under pressure [46]. 3.6.13 Urea - The spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures market may experience short - term basis regression [46].