宝城期货动力煤早报（2025年11月24日）-20251124

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report predicts that the price of 5500K thermal coal will maintain a strong - oscillating trend. Terminal user procurement demand will continue to support coal prices as supply improvement is limited and demand is expected to seasonally strengthen from mid - December, with port inventories being moderately balanced [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price and View Reference - For thermal coal spot, the short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating". The core logic is that terminal procurement supports high - level oscillations in port coal prices [1]. 3.2 Price Driving Logic - In mid - November, affected by the cold wave, domestic temperatures dropped sharply, with a cumulative cooling of up to 20°C in some coastal areas. Coal consumption for power generation is expected to gradually increase in December. As of November 20, the total inventory of thermal coal at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 25.883 million tons, a monthly cumulative increase of 1.775 million tons and 2.916 million tons lower than the same period last year. With port inventories starting to accumulate, downstream resistance to high - priced coal sources has increased, but overall, supply improvement is limited and demand may strengthen seasonally, leading to a strong - oscillating trend in coal prices [4].