Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The A - share market may experience a weak rebound after reaching the bottom, while the futures market has increased trading volume and open interest, and the basis of each variety may widen again. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to take a neutral - to - long approach to the T - contract. In the agricultural product market, different varieties have different trends such as price fluctuations and supply - demand changes. The black metal market is affected by factors like production capacity, cost, and policy, with steel prices fluctuating within a range. The non - ferrous metal market is influenced by the Fed's policy and supply - demand fundamentals, with precious metals waiting for a directional breakthrough [20][22]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Stock Index Futures - Core view: The A - share market may experience a weak rebound after reaching the bottom. The futures market has increased trading volume and open interest, and the basis of each variety may widen again [20]. - Trading strategy: Control positions in the unilateral trading, consider IM\IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use the double - buying strategy for options [20]. - Treasury Futures - Core view: The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to take a neutral - to - long approach to the T - contract and pay attention to potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities in the next - quarter contracts [22]. - Trading strategy: Take a neutral - to - long approach and buy T - contracts on dips in the short - term. Pay attention to potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities in the next - quarter contracts [22]. Agricultural Products - Protein Meal - Core view: The supply pressure is emerging, and domestic supply is abundant. The price of rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate, and soybean meal has price support [25]. - Trading strategy: Short - sell a small amount of long - dated rapeseed meal contracts, hold off on arbitrage, and use the short - strangle strategy for options [26]. - Sugar - Core view: International sugar prices are slightly stronger, while domestic sugar prices are weaker. However, the downward space for domestic sugar prices is limited [28][29]. - Trading strategy: Consider buying on dips in the short - term, conduct long January and short May arbitrage, and sell put options at low prices [29]. - Oilseeds and Oils - Core view: Palm oil may fluctuate weakly, soybean oil follows the overall trend, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue to destock [32]. - Trading strategy: Trade in a short - term range, hold off on arbitrage, and hold off on options [32]. - Corn/Corn Starch - Core view: The spot price of corn is strong, and the futures price fluctuates at a high level. The price of corn starch is also affected [34]. - Trading strategy: Short - buy the December CBOT corn on dips, short - sell the January corn on rallies, and wait for the May and July corn to pull back. Narrow the spread between January corn and starch. Hold off on options [34]. - Hogs - Core view: The supply pressure is increasing, and the spot price is falling. Although there is some support, the overall supply is still high [37]. - Trading strategy: Hold off on trading, hold off on arbitrage, and use the short - strangle strategy for options [37]. - Peanuts - Core view: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom. The new - season peanuts are on the market, but oil mills have not purchased in large quantities [40]. - Trading strategy: Short - sell the January peanuts on rallies, hold off on the May peanuts, conduct reverse arbitrage for the January - May spread, and sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [40]. - Eggs - Core view: The demand is average, and the price is stable with a slight decline. The supply of laying hens is still high, and the short - term price increase space is limited [44]. - Trading strategy: Hold off on trading in the short - term [45]. - Apples - Core view: The demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. The apple quality is relatively poor, and the effective inventory is expected to be low [51]. - Trading strategy: Hold off on trading, hold off on arbitrage, and hold off on options [51]. - Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Core view: The fundamental contradiction is not significant, and the cotton price fluctuates mainly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season [54]. - Trading strategy: The US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to fluctuate in a range. Hold off on arbitrage and options [54]. Black Metals - Steel - Core view: Steel prices fluctuate within a range, and there is still room to reduce hot metal production. The cost has support, but the upward pressure still exists [57]. - Trading strategy: The price will maintain a fluctuating trend. Long the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar on dips. Hold off on options [58]. - Coking Coal and Coke - Core view: The downward risk has been released. The short - term is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to go long on the far - month contracts on dips after the market stabilizes [61]. - Trading strategy: Stop losses on short positions in the short - term. Go long on the far - month contracts on dips after the market stabilizes. Continue to hold the reverse arbitrage of coking coal January/May contracts. Hold off on options [61]. - Iron Ore - Core view: The price is expected to run weakly at a high level. The supply is loose, and the demand is low [63]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a short - bias trading strategy. Hold off on arbitrage and options [63]. - Ferroalloys - Core view: The price fluctuates at the bottom under the trend of production reduction. The fundamentals are in a pattern of both supply and demand declining, and the cost has support [64]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. Hold off on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [65]. Non - ferrous Metals - Precious Metals - Core view: The Fed's "hawk - dove" divergence intensifies, and precious metals fluctuate and wait for a direction. The US dollar index exerts pressure, but the downward space is limited [67]. - Trading strategy: Conservative investors hold off on trading, while aggressive investors can try to go long on dips near the 20 - day moving average. Hold off on arbitrage and options [68]. - Copper - Core view: Short - term attention should be paid to the lower support. The supply is expected to increase, and the price may fluctuate in a high - level range [70]. - Trading strategy: Hold long positions below 86,000 yuan/ton in the short - term. Adopt a low - buying strategy in the long - term. Hold off on arbitrage and options [70]. - Alumina - Core view: The substantial production reduction has not been realized, and attention should be paid to the transfer of warehouse receipts to cash. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [74]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be weak until the warehouse receipts are circulated. Hold off on arbitrage and options [74]. - Electrolytic Aluminum - Core view: The dovish speech of Fed officials eases the pressure on Shanghai aluminum. The fundamental support for the medium - term price is still there [77]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Pay attention to the narrowing of the spread between East China and Central China in the spot market. Hold off on options [78]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy - Core view: The macro - expectation disturbance still exists, and the alloy price mainly follows the aluminum price. The cost provides support, but the demand is cautious [81]. - Trading strategy: The price may stabilize due to the repair of the interest - rate cut expectation. Hold off on arbitrage and options [81]. - Zinc - Core view: The price fluctuates widely. The smelting profit is compressed, and the production may be lower than expected. The consumption is in the off - season [85]. - Trading strategy: Try to go long on dips. Be vigilant about the influence of overseas funds on the zinc price. Hold off on arbitrage and options [85]. - Lead - Core view: The price fluctuates in a range. The supply recovers, but the consumption weakens, and the inventory accumulates [87]. - Trading strategy: The price may fluctuate weakly in a range. Hold off on arbitrage and options [88]. - Nickel - Core view: High inventory suppresses the upward space of the nickel price. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price rebound is limited [91]. - Trading strategy: Short - sell on rallies. Hold off on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [92]. - Stainless Steel - Core view: The supply and demand are both weak, and the raw material price is under pressure. The cost is declining, and the price rebound is weak [95]. - Trading strategy: No specific trading strategy provided in the given text. - Industrial Silicon - Core view: The price may pull back in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips after a sufficient pull - back. The supply - demand balance is tight during the dry season [97]. - Trading strategy: Buy on dips after a sufficient pull - back. Conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage for Si2601 and Si2602. Sell put options after the pull - back [100]. - Polysilicon - Core view: Pay attention to the establishment of the platform company and short - sell on rallies [101]. - Trading strategy: Short - sell on rallies. Hold off on arbitrage [101]. Others - Shipping - Core view: There are still differences in the market, and the price fluctuates. Attention should be paid to the subsequent adjustment of shipping schedules [15]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil - Core view: Geopolitical risks have cooled down, and the oil price runs weakly [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - Asphalt - Core view: The supply and demand remain weak, and the cost runs weakly [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - Fuel Oil - Core view: High - sulfur fuel oil is weak, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil increases more than expected [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - PX & PTA - Core view: The sentiment has cooled down, and the reality is weak [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - Ethylene Glycol - Core view: There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation, and the price declines [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - Short Fiber - Core view: Domestic demand declines seasonally [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - PR (Bottle Chips) - Core view: The demand expectation in the off - season weakens [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - Pure Benzene and Styrene - Core view: The import volume increases, and the inventory is expected to rise [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - Propylene - Core view: The load decreases, but the supply pressure is still large [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - Plastic PP - Core view: The total import and export volume of PE&PP decreases [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - Caustic Soda - Core view: The price of caustic soda is weak [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - PVC - Core view: The price hovers at the bottom [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - Soda Ash - Core view: The price fluctuates weakly [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - Glass - Core view: The demand is weak [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - Methanol - Core view: The price continues to fluctuate [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - Urea - Core view: The quotation is weakly stable, and the transaction is weak [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - Paper Pulp - Core view: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the futures market is under pressure [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - Log - Core view: The spot price of logs runs weakly [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - Offset Printing Paper - Core view: The supply pressure remains high, and the rebound is weak [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - Natural Rubber and 20 -号 Rubber - Core view: The concentrated cancellation of contract warehouse receipts reaches a new low since 2012 [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - Butadiene Rubber - Core view: The inventory of tire finished products accumulates year - on - year and month - on - month [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text.
银河期货每日早盘观察-20251124
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-11-24 03:22