宏观压制叠加淡旺季累库，铜承压回落：沪铜周报-20251124

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, macro sentiment has cooled, and the market has prematurely priced in the Fed not cutting interest rates in December, with the stronger US dollar suppressing copper prices. Coupled with inventory accumulation at home and abroad, copper is under short - term pressure and is expected to test the important psychological support level of 85,000 yuan. In the short term, it is recommended to wait for the price to stop falling and stabilize before making right - side low - buying arrangements. In the long term, copper is still highly regarded as an important strategic resource in the China - US game and a substitute for precious metals, given the tight copper concentrate supply and the booming demand for green copper [3][83]. - New speculative investors should wait for the price to stop falling and stabilize, then make right - side layouts. They can try to go long at low levels around 84,500 - 85,000 yuan, with a stop - loss at 83,000 yuan. Long - term strategic long positions can buy copper put options to hedge risks. Industrial sellers can set up sell - hedges on price rebounds using an inverted pyramid approach. Industrial buyers can wait for the right time, make appropriate spot purchases based on rigid demand, and build long - term positions at low levels when prices correct to lock in raw material costs. The short - term price range for Shanghai copper is [84,000, 88,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [10,400, 11,000] US dollars/ton [4][83]. Summary of Each Section Overseas Macro - US economic data shows mixed results. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending November 15 was 220,000, lower than the expected 227,000. The number of continued jobless claims was 1.974 million, slightly higher than the expected 1.95 million. Existing home sales in October reached an eight - month high, with the median home price rising 2.1% year - on - year. The unemployment rate in September was 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%, and non - farm payrolls increased by 119,000, far exceeding the expected 51,000. The release of October non - farm data is postponed to December 16 [5]. - Fed hawkish officials have been vocal, and the probability of a rate cut on December 10 has dropped to 32.8%, a significant decline from over 90% a month ago. The US dollar index has returned above 100, suppressing copper prices [5]. - Trump publicly criticized Fed Chairman Powell and threatened to dismiss him, which has raised market concerns. Although the market has experienced a sharp decline, it is mainly due to liquidity concerns rather than economic recession fears. The Fed will stop selling Treasury bonds and end quantitative tightening starting from December 1 [5]. Domestic Macro - China's LPR remained unchanged in October, and the market is looking forward to the Politburo meeting in early December. In October, CPI rose 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, while PPI fell 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points [10]. - The growth rate of social financing slowed down slightly in October, and the "scissors gap" between M2 and M1 widened. Industrial added value and service production index growth rates declined year - on - year, and retail sales growth slowed down. Fixed - asset investment decline widened, and real estate sales showed a decline in both volume and price, with the decline in development investment widening [10]. - The current economic downward pressure is significant, consumer and investment willingness is weak, the real estate market is facing a hard landing, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment is strong due to tense Asia - Pacific relations [10]. Copper Research Multi - and Short - Term Logic - Bullish factors include continuous tight global copper concentrate supply, anti - involution in the copper smelting industry at home and abroad, a decline in electrolytic copper production in October with expected further contraction, and strong demand for copper from the power and new - energy vehicle sectors in the long term [20]. - Bearish factors are the obvious suppression of demand by high copper prices, the entry into the consumption off - season with a decline in downstream enterprise operating rates, the difficult bottom - seeking of the real estate market, and the high level of global visible copper inventories [20]. Futures and Spot Market - As of November 20, COMEX copper was priced at 495.35 cents/pound (equivalent to 10,917.5 US dollars/ton), and LME copper was at 10,686 US dollars/ton, with a price difference of 231.5 US dollars/ton. The spot (0 - 3) of LME copper was at a discount of 18.89 US dollars/ton, and (3 - 15) was at a premium of 117.68 US dollars/ton [21]. - As of November 21, the spot of domestic electrolytic copper in the South China region had a premium of 95 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it was 60 yuan/ton. After the copper price decline, downstream buyers actively purchased at low prices, and market trading picked up. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous electrolytic copper spot was at 85,980 yuan/ton, and the main contract of Shanghai copper was at 85,660 yuan/ton, with a basis of 320 yuan/ton [21]. - As of November 14, the net long position of speculative funds in LME copper was 60,294 lots, a 5.23% increase from the previous period. As of November 21, the main contract position of Shanghai copper was 190,218 lots, a 1.08% decrease, and the trading volume was 98,905 lots, a 4.58% decrease [21]. Copper Prices at Home and Abroad - As of November 21, LME copper was at 10,686 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.48% and an annual increase of 21.42%. COMEX copper main contract was at 495 cents/pound, with a weekly decline of 1.91% and an annual increase of 22.73%. The main contract of Shanghai copper was at 85,660 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.43% and an annual increase of 16.89% [23]. Fundamental Summary - Supply Global Copper Concentrate Supply - In 2025, many large copper mines around the world have unexpectedly reduced or halted production. The total output of major global copper mining enterprises in 2025 is expected to be 12.2 million tons, a 3.18% decrease from 2024. The copper concentrate TC is at a continuously low level, currently at - 41.72 US dollars/ton, a 0.2 - dollar decrease from the previous period [43][46]. - Freeport - McMoRan plans to restart the production of about 30% of the Indonesian Grasberg copper - gold mine by July next year. The negotiation of long - term contracts for copper concentrate and electrolytic copper is approaching during the upcoming CESCO meeting, and the spot market is expected to be quiet [43]. Domestic Copper Concentrate Supply - In October 2025, China imported 2.451 million tons of copper concentrate, a 5.9% increase year - on - year. The cumulative import from January to October was 25.086 million tons, a 7.5% increase year - on - year. The inventory of copper concentrate at major domestic ports is currently 7.049 million tons, a 570,000 - ton increase from the previous period [43]. Electrolytic Copper Supply - In October, the output of SMM China electrolytic copper decreased by 29,400 tons month - on - month to 1.0916 million tons, a 2.62% decrease, and is expected to further decrease by 4,000 tons in November. The import volume of refined copper in October was 323,100 tons, a 13.62% decrease month - on - month and a 16.32% decrease year - on - year [43]. Fundamental Summary - Demand - The copper consumption in renewable energy systems is 8 - 12 times that of traditional power generation systems. The copper consumption per unit in the photovoltaic field is 4 tons per megawatt, and the copper consumption for photovoltaic installation is about 0.5 tons per GW. The copper consumption of a pure - electric vehicle is 83 kilograms, 3.6 times that of a fuel - powered vehicle, and that of a pure - electric bus is 224 - 369 kilograms, more than 10 times that of a fuel - powered vehicle [61]. - In October, the operating rates of copper product industries generally declined, except for the copper foil industry, which increased. The sales volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in October was 1.657 million, a 19.3% increase year - on - year. The power investment maintained its resilience, especially the new photovoltaic installation [61]. Inventory at Home and Abroad - As of November 20, the copper inventory in mainstream domestic regions increased by 700 tons to 194,500 tons, and the bonded - area inventory increased by 500 tons to 86,200 tons. The total global exchange copper inventory was 664,100 tons, at a high level compared to the same period in history [74]. - The increase in inventory is due to the off - season of consumption at home and abroad, the opening of the domestic export window, and the influence of the COMEX - LME price difference. There is a potential risk of a local copper inventory backlog in the United States [74]. Summary and Outlook - The US non - farm employment data in September was mixed, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has declined, with the US dollar strengthening. China's macro data is weak, and the policy is in a vacuum period. The market sentiment is cooling, and attention should be paid to US inflation data, the Fed's December meeting, and China's Politburo meeting [83]. - The copper concentrate TC is at a low level, and the production of electrolytic copper has declined. After the copper price decline, downstream purchasing has increased, but the global visible copper inventory is at a high level. The power and automobile industries maintain their resilience, while the real estate and infrastructure sectors are weak [83].