华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251124

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a sideways consolidation, with the price center shifting down and running weakly [1][3] - The aluminum ingot price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped production on January 5th, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [3] - The finished products are expected to move in a sideways consolidation. Future attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum - There are rumors that a new mining area in Guinea may produce ore, but its actual shipment needs further confirmation. With high absolute inventory, the pattern of sufficient bauxite supply is difficult to change, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [3] - The off - season characteristics of the aluminum processing industry are deepening, showing significant structural differentiation. The primary aluminum alloy maintains a stable supply - demand pattern, and aluminum cables are a bright spot, while most sectors face downward pressure [3] - On November 24, 2025, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 33,000 tons from last Monday and 8,000 tons from last Thursday [3] - The macro situation has mixed sentiment, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a range. Future attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend and high - level pressure [4]