华宝期货晨报煤焦-20251124

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The impact of the supply - guarantee policy on market sentiment is gradually reflected in the futures market, while the actual supply - demand change is limited. There is seasonal pressure on future demand. The price of the main coking coal contract is approaching the lower limit of the trading range (1100 - 1300), testing the support level below [2][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs - Market Performance: Last week, the coking coal and coke futures prices continued to decline in a volatile manner, with coking coal leading the decline. The position of the 01 contract was gradually transferred to the 05 contract. The futures price was at a discount to the spot price, and the weak delivery logic dragged down the near - month price. The spot market was generally weak and stable, with coal prices in some regions adjusting downwards. After four rounds of price increases, coke prices remained stable [3]. - Fundamental Analysis: In terms of supply, many coal mines in Shanxi Lvliang returned to full production, and coal mines in Shaanxi Yan'an Zichang resumed production, increasing the overall output. The daily average output of clean coal last week was 75.8 million tons, a slight increase of 0.1 million tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 3.8 million tons year - on - year. On the import side, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased slightly but remained at a high level. There were rumors of a trial of 2000 - vehicle customs clearance. In terms of demand, steel mill profits continued to shrink, with the profitability rate falling below 40%. The daily average pig iron output decreased to 236.28 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons compared with the previous week but an increase of 0.48 million tons year - on - year. During the off - season, pig iron output tends to decline, putting pressure on raw material demand [3].