出口需求疲软，棕榈油震荡偏弱

Report Title - Palm Oil Weekly Report [1] Report Date - November 24, 2025 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Last week, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract dropped 57 to close at 4,068 ringgit/ton, a decline of 1.38%; palm oil 01 contract fell 94 to close at 8,550 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.09%; soybean oil 01 contract dropped 66 to close at 8,190 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.8%; rapeseed oil 01 contract fell 107 to close at 9,816 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.08%; CBOT soybean oil main contract rose 0.13 to close at 50.61 cents/pound, an increase of 0.26%; ICE canola active contract dropped 3.9 to close at 641.8 Canadian dollars/ton, a decline of 0.6% [4][6]. - The expectation of US biodiesel policy fluctuated, causing the oil and fat sector to rise and then fall during the week; the export demand for palm oil at the origin was weak, the inventory accumulation expectation was strengthened, the supply tended to be loose, the origin quotation was lowered, the domestic inventory continued to increase, and the futures price broke through the support on Friday night, so palm oil was running weakly. The rapeseed oil inventory was accelerating to decline, the China-Canada relationship was still uncertain, the arrival of Australian rapeseeds to the port to some extent alleviated the tight supply expectation, but the relatively small arrival volume compared with the same period last year still provided support [4][6]. - Macroeconomically, the path of US interest rate cuts in December was unclear, the US dollar liquidity continued to tighten, the panic sentiment in the US stock market intensified, the US dollar index tested the 100 mark; the oil price was fluctuating weakly. Fundamentally, the fluctuating expectation of US biodiesel policy intensified market volatility; the weak export demand for palm oil at the origin led to a lower quotation, the inventory accumulation expectation was strengthened, and combined with the weakening of international oil prices, palm oil weakened again. It is expected that palm oil will fluctuate weakly in the short term [4][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - From November 14 to November 21, CBOT soybean oil main contract rose 0.13 to 50.61 cents/pound, an increase of 0.26%; BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract dropped 57 to 4,068 ringgit/ton, a decline of 1.38%; DCE palm oil dropped 94 to 8,550 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.09%; DCE soybean oil dropped 66 to 8,190 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.8%; CZCE rapeseed oil dropped 107 to 9,816 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.08%. The futures price difference between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 28 to -360 yuan/ton, and the futures price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased by 13 to 1,266 yuan/ton. The spot prices of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou, first-grade soybean oil in Rizhao, and imported third-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang all decreased by 120 yuan/ton, with declines of 1.40%, 1.42%, and 1.17% respectively [5]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - From November 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil increased by 1.82% month-on-month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.43% month-on-month, and the output increased by 4.09% month-on-month. From November 1 - 20, the palm oil export volume of Malaysia decreased by 20.5%, 14.1%, and 44.9% respectively according to different survey agencies [7]. - A new market year is expected to see a nearly 20% rebound in India's palm oil imports to 9.3 million tons, and the total edible oil imports are expected to rise to a record 16.5 - 17 million tons. As of the end of October 2025, India's vegetable oil inventory decreased by 700,000 tons year-on-year [8]. - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.223 million tons, an increase of 18,300 tons from the previous week and 225,900 tons from the same period last year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.1485 million tons, a decrease of 8,700 tons from the previous week and an increase of 70,400 tons from the same period last year; the palm oil inventory was 653,200 tons, an increase of 55,900 tons from the previous week and 122,100 tons from the same period last year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 421,300 tons, a decrease of 28,900 tons from the previous week and an increase of 33,400 tons from the same period last year. As of the week of November 21, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 21,180 tons, and that of palm oil was 1,600 tons [9]. 3. Industry News - Malaysia set the reference price of palm oil in December at 4,206.38 ringgit/ton, with an export tax rate of 10.0%, and the reference price in November was 4,262.23 ringgit/ton [10]. - Sarawak Oil Palms Berhad in Malaysia aims to maximize the output of its existing plantations. It has 1.62 million hectares of oil palm plantations, accounting for 29% of Malaysia's total oil palm planting area, but its output only accounts for 21.6% of Malaysia's palm oil output. The company's production target this year is a 5% year-on-year increase, and it replants 4,000 - 6,000 hectares annually with a goal to complete a full replanting cycle in 15 years [10]. 4. Related Charts - The report includes charts on the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, three major oils, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in both futures and spot markets, as well as the price differences, import profits, and monthly production, inventory, and export volume of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the commercial inventory of domestic three major oils [11][13][15][17][19][21][24][25][26][27][28][31][34][37][38][39][41][43][45][47][48]