纯碱玻璃周报：地产政策或有扰动，价格低位震荡-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, last week's soda ash operating rate declined slightly, with some soda ash plants having new maintenance plans, leading to a further contraction in supply. However, the enterprise shipment volume was decent, with the weekly shipment scale increasing, and the demand side did not weaken significantly, driving inventory down. In terms of profit, the on - screen profits of the dual - alkali process and the ammonia - soda process have turned negative, and coal prices remain relatively high, which may support costs. It is expected that the short - term fundamentals of soda ash have not weakened significantly, and costs may be supported, with prices fluctuating at a low level [3]. - For glass, the daily melting volume of float glass in production decreased slightly, and the operating rate declined, indicating a contraction in supply. However, the downstream demand has poor resilience, the number of days of deep - processing orders from enterprises has changed from increasing to decreasing, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has further accumulated. In contrast, the supply of photovoltaic glass is stable, but the terminal industry has entered the year - end grid - connection stage, and the purchasing demand is limited. The inventory of photovoltaic glass enterprises has accumulated for two consecutive periods. In addition, it is expected that the domestic real estate support policies may be introduced recently, which may disturb the sentiment in the glass market. It is expected that the glass fundamentals will remain weak, but the new real estate policies may boost market sentiment, and glass prices may stabilize at a low level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Important Data Summary | Indicator | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/14 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soda ash futures price | 1170 | 1226 | - 56.0 | Yuan/ton | | Soda ash spot price | 1140 | 1175 | - 35.0 | Yuan/ton | | Soda ash weekly output | 72.1 | 73.9 | - 1.8 | Ten thousand tons | | Soda ash shipment volume | 78.4 | 74.6 | 3.8 | Ten thousand tons | | Soda ash enterprise inventory | 164.4 | 170.7 | - 6.3 | Ten thousand tons | | Glass futures price | 987 | 1032 | - 45.0 | Yuan/ton | | Glass spot price: Shahe 5mm | 988 | 1028 | - 40.0 | Yuan/ton | | Float glass daily melting volume | 15.8 | 15.9 | - 0.1 | Ten thousand tons | | Float glass enterprise inventory | 6330.3 | 6324.7 | 5.6 | Ten thousand weight boxes | | Photovoltaic glass daily melting volume | 8.9 | 8.9 | 0.0 | Ten thousand tons | | Photovoltaic glass enterprise inventory | 29.4 | 29.1 | 0.3 | Days | [5] 3.2 Market Review - Price: The mainstream market price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area dropped from 1218 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week to 1207 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a weekly decline of about 11 yuan/ton. The spot market price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe area dropped from 1016 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week to 1000 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a weekly decline of about 16 yuan/ton [6]. - Soda ash supply: Last week, the total soda ash output was about 72.09 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.83 million tons; the operating rate was 83.14%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.31 percentage points. Some soda ash plants joined the maintenance queue. For example, the soda ash plant of Xiangyu Yanhua planned to reduce its load on November 18, with an expected impact period of 5 - 6 days and a total company capacity of about 1 million tons; the soda ash plant of Jiangsu Jingshen planned to reduce its operation on November 19, with an undetermined impact period and a total company capacity of about 700,000 tons. Currently, the on - screen price has fallen below the cost thresholds of the dual - alkali process and the ammonia - soda process, putting pressure on upstream profits, and the maintenance pressure may continue recently, with the supply side remaining weak [6]. - Soda ash demand: Last week, the daily melting volume of float glass in production was 15.81 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous period; the number of production lines in operation (excluding zombie production lines) was 222, the same as the previous period. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass in production was 8.94 million tons, the same as the previous period; the number of production lines in operation was 403, the same as the previous period. Affected by the weakening on - screen price, the profits of glass enterprises are under pressure, and the cost support strength of the coal - fired glass process is being focused on. Since the start - stop cost of glass production lines is high, cold - repair of the supply side may release a stronger bottom signal. From the inventory perspective, the inventory of photovoltaic glass enterprises was 29.4 days, an increase of 0.32 days from the previous period. The inventory of float glass was 6330.3 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 5.6 million weight boxes. Overall, the glass supply shows signs of contraction, and the drag on soda ash demand may gradually appear. The further increase in glass enterprise inventory and the weakening of deep - processing order days reflect the weak terminal demand. However, third - party institutions expect that domestic real estate support policies will be introduced recently, which may boost market sentiment. In the short term, attention should be paid to the strength of real estate policies and the progress of coal - to - gas conversion in the Shahe area, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [7]. - Soda ash inventory: Last week, the soda ash inventory was 1.6444 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 73,000 tons. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 757,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 128,000 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 887,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 55,000 tons [7]. - Price difference: As of November 21, the price difference between soda ash and glass has dropped to around 200 yuan/ton and remained at a relatively low level during the reporting period. From the perspective of product fundamentals, the weak downstream pattern of glass is relatively certain, and there are no bright spots in the fundamentals. However, recent real - estate policies may boost glass prices, and there is still room for long - short games. The fundamentals of soda ash are temporarily better than those of glass, but as the scale of glass cold - repair increases, the resilience of soda ash fundamentals faces challenges. In the short term, both soda ash and glass face certain uncertainties, and the trend of the price difference is unclear, so it is advisable to wait and see [8]. 3.3 Industry News - Honglei Optics, a subsidiary of Hongtian Co., Ltd., completed the order delivery of semiconductor mask lithography machines and TGV glass substrate lithography machines. The mask direct - writing lithography machine has a minimum line - width and line - spacing resolution of 2.5μm and an alignment accuracy of ±2μm, meeting the mass - production lithography requirements of mask products with an L/S of 3μm. The other direct - writing lithography machine for the TGV glass substrate field has a minimum line - width and line - spacing resolution of 6μm and an alignment accuracy of ±4μm, meeting the production requirements of TGV glass substrates with a size of 510mm*515mm [9]. - Qibin Group has built float and photovoltaic glass production bases in Malaysia, with overseas production capacity accounting for 20%. The operation of the Shaba Guda silica sand mine and the supporting wharf has established an integrated overseas supply chain of "resources - production - sales" [9]. - The "coal - to - gas" policy is reshaping the competitive landscape of the glass industry. As an energy - intensive industry, glass production has long relied on coal as the core fuel. This transformation centered on clean - energy substitution not only triggers a structural change on the supply side but also promotes the industry's evolution from "fuel replacement" to "ecological reconstruction" and "value upgrading" [9].