南华期货豆一产业周报：盘面价格波动明显，现货价格僵持-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean market is running steadily with a slightly stalemate in prices and limited overall changes. The price of soybeans in the Northeast region has a clear bottom support under the state reserve purchase, while in the southern producing areas, the tight circulation of high - quality soybeans and farmers' reluctance to sell support the price. The demand side is stable, with the peak - season characteristics emerging, but the terminal replenishment is completed, and the procurement is mainly for regular needs [3]. - In the futures market, the weekly price of soybean No. 1 adjusted downward. The main 2601 contract fell 2.51% weekly, and the trading volume increased while the position decreased significantly. The CBOT soybean futures price fell after reaching a one - year high, and the market is concerned about China's procurement trends and South American weather changes [3]. - In the long - term, the price of domestic soybeans is expected to end the three - year adjustment, break through the bottom - range oscillation, and the price center may move up. The high - quality and high - price phenomenon will continue, and the price of high - protein soybeans will be supported by rigid demand [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Spot Market: The domestic soybean market is stable, with prices in the Northeast region supported by state reserve purchase, and in the south, high - quality soybeans and farmers' reluctance to sell support prices. The demand side is stable, but the over - high price of traders suppresses procurement willingness [3]. - Futures Market: The soybean No. 1 futures price adjusted downward weekly, with the main 2601 contract falling 2.51%. The trading volume increased, and the position decreased significantly. The CBOT soybean futures price fell after reaching a high [3]. - Trading Logic: In the short - term, the spot price in the Northeast is stagnant, and the futures price is affected by the decline of US soybean prices and the pressure of hedging profits. In the long - term, the supply of high - protein soybeans will decrease, and the price is expected to rise. The new - season supply pressure is dispersed, but pay attention to the phased selling pressure at the end of the year [6]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgement: Bullish trend with short - term correction. - Technical Viewpoint: The reduction of long positions leads to the decline of futures prices. - Strategy Viewpoint: Overall, stay on the sidelines. If there is an entry in the hedging of low - price inventory at high prices last week, it can be held. - Basis Strategy: The spot price is stagnant, the futures price falls, and the basis strengthens. Partial hedging at high positions shows the hedging effect. - Spread Strategy: The change of the spread between near and far months is not obvious, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Inventory Management: For planting subjects, when the new soybeans are harvested in autumn, the selling pressure is high. It is recommended to lock in the planting profit by short - selling soybean No. 1 futures (A2601) with a 30% hedging ratio when the price is above 4100 (hold cautiously). - Procurement Management: For those worried about the rise of raw material prices, it is recommended to wait for the futures price to fall and then enter the market for procurement, mainly focusing on forward procurement management (A2603, A2605) [7]. 3.2 Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: State reserve purchase of new - season domestic soybeans at certain prices, and the successful auction of 35,692 tons of domestic soybeans on November 18 [9]. - Negative Information: China's purchase of 14 ships of US soybeans, and the decline of trading activity in the spot market and the significant decline of the futures price [9]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - China's import of US soybeans news. - Whether the selling pressure of the spot price actively emerges. - Whether the state reserve purchase points further increase [12]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement: The price of soybean No. 1 adjusted downward weekly. The main 2601 contract fell 2.51%, and the trading volume increased while the position decreased significantly. The registered warehouse receipts increased to 12,832 lots [10]. - Basis and Spread Structure: The basis strengthened as the spot price was stagnant and the futures price fell. The spread structure between near and far months changed little [16][20]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - Upstream and Downstream Profits: The planting profit of soybeans in Heilongjiang has increased significantly, especially for high - protein soybeans. The profit of mid - stream trading enterprises is uncertain, and the downstream demand for high - protein soybeans is expected to remain strong. The crushing profit has weakened [33]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side and Deduction - The supply of high - protein soybeans will decrease, and the supply of medium - and low - protein soybeans will increase. The soybean price is expected to be firm, and the pattern of high - quality and high - price will continue [37]. 3.5.2 Demand Side and Deduction - The edible consumption market of domestic soybeans is expected to be active, and the demand is mainly for high - protein soybeans. The oil - bean demand depends on the price of oil and meal. The overall price of domestic soybeans is expected to stop falling, and the low point may have been reached in early October [37].