国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded [2]. - Silver: It is in a state of oscillatory adjustment [2]. - Copper: The reduction in inventory supports the price [2][11]. - Zinc: It is in a range - bound oscillation [2][14]. - Lead: The reduction in inventory restricts the price decline [2][17]. - Tin: It has declined from a high level [2][20]. - Aluminum: Attention should be paid to the lower support [2][24]. - Alumina: There is still fundamental pressure [2][24]. - Cast aluminum alloy: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][24]. - Nickel: The pace of inventory accumulation has slightly slowed down, with short - term disturbances from the macro and news [2][27]. - Stainless steel: The steel price is pressured and oscillating at a low level, but the downside potential is limited [2][27]. - Lithium carbonate: The game between long and short positions has intensified. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large factories [2][32]. - Industrial silicon: Attention should be paid to the bottom support of the disk [2][36]. - Polysilicon: As it approaches the centralized cancellation period, attention should be paid to the changes in warehouse receipts [2][36]. - Iron ore: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high [2][39]. - Rebar: It is in a wide - range oscillation [2][42]. - Hot - rolled coil: It is in a wide - range oscillation [2][43]. - Ferrosilicon: The cost provides bottom support, and it is in a wide - range oscillation [2][49]. - Silicomanganese: The cost provides bottom support, and it is in a wide - range oscillation [2][49]. - Coke: It is in a wide - range oscillation [2][54]. - Coking coal: It is in a wide - range oscillation [2][54]. - Log: It is in a weak oscillation [2][56]. - p - Xylene: Do not chase high in the short term [2]. - PTA: It is in a unilateral oscillatory market. Do not chase high [2]. - MEG: The supply - demand pattern has improved. Short positions should be reduced [2]. - Rubber: It is oscillating [2]. - Synthetic rubber: It is operating weakly within the valuation range [2]. - Asphalt: It is following the weak operation of crude oil [2]. - LLDPE: The import offers may decrease, and the cracking load is disturbed [2]. - PP: Do not chase short in the short term. There is still pressure in the medium - term trend [2]. - Caustic soda: There is still pressure in the trend [2]. - Pulp: It is oscillating [2]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable [2]. - Methanol: It is oscillating weakly, and the downside space is narrowing [2]. - Urea: It is oscillating [2]. - Styrene: It is oscillating in the short term [2]. - Soda ash: There is little change in the spot market [2]. - LPG: The downstream demand is differentiated. Attention should be paid to the cost changes [5]. - Propylene: The upward driving force has weakened, and the cost support is relatively strong [5]. - PVC: Do not chase short. It is oscillating at a low level [5]. - Fuel oil: The downward trend has reappeared. It may be stronger than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [5]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The weakness continues, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has shrunk [5]. - Container shipping index (European line): It is in an oscillatory consolidation [5]. - Staple fiber: It is in a short - term oscillatory market [5]. - Bottle chips: It is in a short - term oscillatory market, and the processing fee is compressed [5]. - Offset printing paper: It is oscillating at a low level [5]. - Pure benzene: The gasoline crack spread has回调, and the inventory pressure of pure benzene at the port has emerged [5]. - Palm oil: There are doubts about the inventory reduction in the producing areas. Be vigilant against a second dip [5]. - Soybean oil: The price of US soybeans has declined, and it is mainly oscillating within a range [5]. - Soybean meal: The US soybeans closed higher overnight. It may follow the rebound [5]. - Soybean No. 1: It is oscillating [5]. - Corn: It is oscillating [5]. - Sugar: The total import volume and structure are the key [5]. - Cotton: It is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [5]. - Eggs: The volume of culling has increased, and there is expected support [5]. - Live pigs: The social pig slaughtering node is approaching [5]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the spot [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Fundamental Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and inventories of domestic and foreign gold and silver futures and spot markets are provided. For example, the closing price of沪金2512 was 932.56, with a daily decline of 0.47%, and the closing price of沪银2512 was 12046, with a daily decline of 0.81% [6]. - Macro and Industry News: The "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled dovishness, indicating that there is still room for interest rate cuts in the "near term". The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut exceeded 70% during the session [7]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of gold and silver is 0, indicating a neutral stance [9]. Copper - Fundamental Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of domestic and foreign copper futures and spot markets are presented. For example, the closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 85,660, with a daily decline of 0.55%, and the inventory of沪铜 decreased by 5,193 tons [11]. - Macro and Industry News: After the "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled dovishness, the price of US Treasury bonds accelerated its rise, and the yield reached a new low this month. The US dollar index rose and reached a nearly six - month high. The initial value of the US S&P Global Composite PMI in November was 54.8, the highest in four months [11]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral stance [13]. Zinc - Fundamental Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of domestic and foreign zinc futures and spot markets are given. For example, the closing price of沪锌主力 was 22390, with a daily increase of 0.02%, and the inventory of沪锌 decreased by 771 tons [14]. - News: Trump - appointed Federal Reserve governor Milan said that the impact of the September non - farm payrolls report was "obviously dovish", and the November CPI might be released after the December interest rate decision [15]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral stance [16]. Lead - Fundamental Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of domestic and foreign lead futures and spot markets are provided. For example, the closing price of沪铅主力 was 17165, with a daily decline of 0.32%, and the inventory of沪铅 decreased by 601 tons [17]. - News: After the "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled dovishness, the price of US Treasury bonds accelerated its rise, and the yield reached a new low this month. The US dollar index rose and reached a nearly six - month high [18]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral stance [18]. Tin - Fundamental Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of domestic and foreign tin futures and spot markets are presented. For example, the closing price of沪锡主力合约 was 292,030, with a daily decline of 0.46%, and the inventory of沪锡 increased by 31 tons [21]. - Macro and Industry News: The "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled dovishness, indicating that there is still room for interest rate cuts in the "near term". The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut exceeded 70% during the session [22]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of tin is 0, indicating a neutral stance [23]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamental Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of domestic and foreign aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot markets are given. For example, the closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 21340, with a decline of 190 compared to the previous trading day [24]. - Comprehensive News: The "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled dovishness, indicating that there is still room for interest rate cuts in the "near term". The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut exceeded 70% during the session [26]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral stance [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of domestic and foreign nickel and stainless - steel futures and spot markets are provided. For example, the closing price of沪镍主力 was 114,050, with a decline of 1,330 compared to the previous trading day [27]. - Macro and Industry News: Due to violations of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area. China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [27]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are +1, indicating a moderately bullish stance [31]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of lithium carbonate futures and spot markets are presented. For example, the closing price of the 2601 contract was 91,020, with a decline of 7,960 compared to the previous trading day [32]. - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 92801 yuan/ton, a increase of 401 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [33]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral stance [35]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures and spot markets are given. For example, the closing price of Si2601 was 8,960, with a decline of 115 compared to the previous trading day [36]. - Macro and Industry News: On November 14, the government of Urad Rear Banner held a project docking and negotiation meeting with China Association for Science and Technology Zhongti Zhengli Group, discussing a 400,000 - ton organic silicon and 200,000 - ton industrial silicon project [36]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, indicating a neutral stance, and the trend intensity of polysilicon is 1, indicating a moderately bullish stance [38]. Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of iron - ore futures and spot markets are provided. For example, the closing price of iron - ore futures was 785.5 yuan/ton, with a decline of 3.0 yuan/ton [39]. - Macro and Industry News: In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year [40]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of iron ore is - 1, indicating a moderately bearish stance [40]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot markets are presented. For example, the closing price of RB2601 was 3,057 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2 yuan/ton [43]. - Macro and Industry News: According to the weekly data from Steel Union on November 20, the output of rebar increased by 7.96 tons, and the output of hot - rolled coil increased by 2.35 tons [44]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of rebar and hot - rolled coil are 0, indicating a neutral stance [47]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures and spot markets are given. For example, the closing price of the ferrosilicon 2603 contract was 5472 yuan/ton, with an increase of 26 yuan/ton [49]. - Macro and Industry News: On November 21, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5050 - 5150 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton [50]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are 0, indicating a neutral stance [52]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of coke and coking - coal futures and spot markets are provided. For example, the closing price of JM2601 was 1103 yuan/ton, with a decline of 10.5 yuan/ton [54]. - Macro and Industry News: Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season [55]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are 0, indicating a neutral stance [55]. Log There is no detailed fundamental data, news, or trend intensity information provided specifically for logs in the content, only the view that it is in a weak oscillation [56].