Report Information - Report Date: November 24, 2025 [1][4][9][12][15][18][22][25] - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals - Analyst: Liu Yuxuan, Ji Xianfei, Wang Rong, Zhang Zaiyu - Contact: Wang Zongyuan Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: The expectation of interest - rate cuts has rebounded [2]. - Silver: It is in a state of oscillatory adjustment [2]. - Copper: The reduction in inventory supports the price [2]. - Zinc: It is in a range - bound oscillation [2]. - Lead: The reduction in inventory limits the price decline [2]. - Tin: The price has fallen from a high level [2]. - Aluminum: Attention should be paid to the lower support level [2]. - Alumina: There is still fundamental pressure [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: The pace of inventory accumulation has slightly slowed down, with short - term disturbances from the macro - environment and news [2]. - Stainless Steel: The steel price is under pressure and oscillating at a low level, but the downside potential is limited [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold - Price Performance: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 yesterday was 932.56, with a daily decline of 0.47%, and the night - session closing price was 933.90, with a night - session decline of 0.66% [4]. - Macro News: The "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled a dovish stance, saying there is still room for interest - rate cuts "in the near term", and the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut exceeded 70% during the session [5]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of gold is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7]. Silver - Price Performance: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 yesterday was 12046, with a daily decline of 0.81%, and the night - session closing price was 11967.00, with a night - session decline of 1.34% [4]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of silver is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7]. Copper - Price Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 85,660, with a daily decline of 0.55%, and the night - session closing price was 86180, with a night - session increase of 0.61% [9]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 5,193 tons to 49,790 tons, and the inventory of London Copper decreased by 2,900 tons to 155,025 tons [9]. - Macro and Industry News: The "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled a dovish stance, and the US 11 - month S&P Global Composite PMI preliminary value reached a four - month high [9][11]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Zinc - Price Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22390, with a daily increase of 0.02%, and the closing price of the London Zinc 3M electronic disk was 2992, with a decline of 0.38% [12]. - News: Trump's "appointee" to the Fed, Stephen Miran, said the September non - farm payrolls report was "obviously dovish" [13]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [14]. Lead - Price Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17165, with a daily decline of 0.32%, and the closing price of the London Lead 3M electronic disk was 1989, with a decline of 0.80% [15]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Lead decreased by 601 tons to 29955 tons, and the inventory of London Lead decreased by 1800 tons to 262850 tons [15]. - Macro News: The "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled a dovish stance, and the US 11 - month S&P Global Composite PMI preliminary value reached a four - month high [16]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16]. Tin - Price Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 292,030, with a daily decline of 0.46%, and the night - session closing price was 292,990, with a decline of 0.16% [19]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Tin increased by 31 tons to 5,991 tons, and the inventory of London Tin decreased by 50 tons to 3,065 tons [19]. - Macro and Industry News: The "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled a dovish stance, and the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut exceeded 70% during the session [20]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of tin is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [21]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21340, with a decline of 190; the closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2713, with a decline of 19; the closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20595, with a decline of 185 [22]. - News: The "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled a dovish stance, and the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut exceeded 70% during the session [24]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral outlook [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 114,050, with a decline of 1,330; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,290, with an increase of 5 [25]. - Industry News: The Indonesian forestry working group took over a nickel - mining area, and China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [25][26]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both +1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [29].
观点与策略：国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属-20251124
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-11-24 03:12