宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20251124

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report's Core View - The overall situation of the commodity futures agricultural products sector is under pressure, with most varieties showing a weak - oscillating trend [5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - Price Trend: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating weakly, with a reference view of oscillating weakly [5][6] - Core Logic: Domestic soybean supply is abundant, and soybean meal inventory is high. The high oil mill operating rate weakens cost support. The market doubts China's ability to complete the 12 - million - ton US soybean procurement target by the end of the year, and the strong expected South American soybean harvest weakens the cost support of US soybean futures for domestic soybeans. There are dual pressures of supply surplus and weak demand. Although the arbitrage of buying oil and selling meal provides temporary support, the key support at 3000 yuan/ton is crucial, and if broken, the downside space will open [5] For Palm Oil (P) - Price Trend: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating weakly, with a reference view of oscillating weakly [7] - Core Logic: Malaysian palm oil futures are dragged down by external edible oil markets and volatile crude oil prices. Weak export data and the expected inventory build - up in November add short - term inventory pressure. Its trend is closely linked to US soybean oil and the international oil and fat sector, and the biodiesel policy is a key variable [7] For Other Varieties (Brief Summary) - Soybean Oil 2601: Influenced by US soybean cost support, US biodiesel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6] - Palm 2601: Affected by biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, major producers' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6]