宏观短期偏空，矿端犹存约束，沪铜震荡：铜周报20251123-20251124

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251123: Short - term Macroeconomic Bearish, Mine - end Constraints Remain, Shanghai Copper Oscillates [1] Core View - The macro situation is short - term bearish, there are still constraints at the mine end, and Shanghai copper shows an oscillating trend [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - The copper spot premium increased as the market declined and terminal purchasing willingness rebounded [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium first fell and then rose, with limited month - on - month changes [13] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.11 per ton month - on - month to - $42.32 per ton, remaining at a low level [17] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates in ten ports increased by 57,000 tons month - on - month to 704,900 tons [20] - The price difference between refined and scrap copper weakened month - on - month [22] - The estimated output of electrolytic copper in China in November will decrease by 0.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.2% year - on - year [24] - In October, China imported 279,900 tons of refined copper and exported 65,900 tons, with a net import of 214,000 tons [25] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper continued to decrease month - on - month, while the bonded area inventory continued to increase [27] - LME copper inventories increased, and COMEX copper inventories continued to accumulate [28] - The operating rate of refined copper rods continued to increase month - on - month as the market corrected, downstream purchasing sentiment improved, and orders rebounded [30] - From November 1st to 16th, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 2% year - on - year and 7% compared with the same period last month [33] - The overall production volume of domestic photovoltaic module enterprises in November is expected to decline month - on - month [35] - The planned production volume of domestic household air conditioners in November decreased by 23.7% compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year [36] Macroeconomic Data - In October, China's new social financing was 81 billion yuan, new RMB loans were 22 billion yuan, and the gap between M2 and M1 widened [39] - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in November unexpectedly fell below the boom - bust line [42] - The minutes of the Fed meeting showed serious differences [43]