20251121申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251124

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the stronger side, while zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [2] 3. Summary by Variety Copper - Night - time copper prices closed lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profit is at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales grow positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate sector remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand situation into a deficit, providing long - term support for copper prices. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventory is generally at a high level. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance output is in negative growth, and the real estate sector remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply - demand is not obvious, and prices may fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] 4. Market Data Domestic Futures - Copper's previous closing price was 86,080 yuan/ton with a basis of 50 yuan/ton; aluminum was 21,495 yuan/ton with a basis of - 10 yuan/ton; zinc was 22,380 yuan/ton with a basis of 55 yuan/ton; nickel was 115,250 yuan/ton with a basis of - 3,150 yuan/ton; lead was 17,200 yuan/ton with a basis of - 140 yuan/ton; tin was 292,030 yuan/ton with a basis of - 460 yuan/ton [2] LME Market - Copper's LME 3 - month closing price was 10,686 dollars/ton with a spot premium of - 33.13 dollars/ton and inventory of 157,875 tons (a daily increase of 17,375 tons); aluminum was 2,807 dollars/ton with a spot premium of - 32.88 dollars/ton and inventory of 546,075 tons (a daily decrease of 2,000 tons); zinc was 3,004 dollars/ton with a spot premium of 152.14 dollars/ton and inventory of 45,075 tons (a daily increase of 1,550 tons); nickel was 14,455 dollars/ton with a spot premium of - 197.66 dollars/ton and inventory of 255,846 tons (a daily decrease of 1,986 tons); lead was 2,005 dollars/ton with a spot premium of - 27.39 dollars/ton and inventory of 264,475 tons (a daily decrease of 325 tons); tin was 37,035 dollars/ton with a spot premium of 100 dollars/ton and inventory of 3,115 tons (a daily increase of 60 tons) [2]