新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-24）-20251124

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Volatile [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level volatile [4] - Silver: High-level volatile [4] - Logs: Bottom volatile [6] - Pulp: Weakly volatile [6] - Offset paper: Weakly volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Range-bound [6] - Palm oil: Range-bound [6] - Rapeseed oil: Range-bound [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile and weakening [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and weakening [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and weakening [7] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and weakening [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and strengthening [7] - Rubber: Volatile [10] - PX: Volatile [10] - PTA: Volatile [10] - MEG: Wide-range volatile [10] - PR: On hold [10] - PF: On hold [10] Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some sectors are in a volatile state, some are showing signs of rebound or upward movement, while others are weakening or range-bound. The performance of each sector is affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, policy, and geopolitical situation [2][4][6][7][10] Summaries by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals Industry - Iron ore: Overseas shipments increased significantly, but domestic port arrivals continued to decline. The demand core lies in the real estate sector, with weak domestic demand. The supply-demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and the price will mainly fluctuate at a high level [2] - Coking coal and coke: Affected by import target news and supply concerns, the futures prices dropped significantly. The profit repair of coke enterprises is limited, and the market has different views on the fifth price increase. The supply-demand situation is expected to become loose again, and the short-term adjustment trend will continue [2] - Rebar: The downstream demand is sluggish, and the winter storage replenishment has not started yet. The price will remain in a volatile state, and it depends on the implementation of production reduction and anti-"involution" policies [2] - Glass: The spot price is relatively weak, and the demand is dragged down by the continuous decline in real estate completion. The inventory is increasing, and the price will be in a low-level consolidation state [2] Financial Sector - Stock index futures/options: The market adjusted in the short term, but the medium-term trend is still upward. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds remained flat, and the market showed a slight rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional real interest rate to central bank gold purchases. The central bank's gold purchase behavior is the key, and factors such as high interest rates, geopolitical risks, and currency credit issues support the long-term price of gold [4] Light Industry Sector - Logs: The port inventory is increasing, and the demand is in the off-season with limited growth prospects. The spot price is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6] - Pulp: The spot price is differentiated, and the cost support for pulp prices is weakening. The demand from the paper industry is not strong, and the pulp price is expected to be weakly volatile [6] - Offset paper: The supply is stable, and the market expectation is cautious. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [6] Oil and Fat Sector - Oils: The production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil are higher than expected, and the export is weak. The domestic supply of oils is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to range-bound [6] - Meals: The global soybean supply is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal is affected by factors such as the uncertainty of biodiesel policies and the weather in Brazil. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [6] Agricultural Products Sector - Live pigs: The trading weight of live pigs fluctuates, and the demand has recovered to some extent. The slaughter rate of slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly, and the price is expected to remain volatile [7] Soft Commodities Sector - Rubber: The supply in some regions is affected by weather conditions, and the demand from the tire industry has recovered. The inventory is in the seasonal accumulation period, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [10] - PX: The supply is strong, and the demand from the downstream polyester industry is favorable. The price will mainly fluctuate [10] - PTA: The cost end is loosened, and the short-term supply-demand situation has improved, but the seasonal weakening is inevitable. The price will follow the cost end to fluctuate [10] - MEG: The long-term inventory accumulation pressure still exists, and the short-term supply has decreased. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [10] - PR: Affected by factors such as falling oil prices and new device production, the market continues to decline [10] - PF: The demand is average, and the supply of raw materials is loose. The market is likely to be weakly volatile [10]