棕榈油：产地去库存疑，警惕二次下探，豆油：美豆回落，区间震荡为主

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest data on the fundamentals of the oil and fat industry, including futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, basis, and price spreads. It also includes macro and industry news, such as production, export, and planting progress in the oil and fat sector [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - Prices and Fluctuations: Palm oil futures closed at 8,550 yuan/ton during the day session with a -1.11% decline and 208,452 yuan/ton at night with a -1.15% decline; soybean oil futures closed at 8,190 yuan/ton during the day (-0.41%) and 8,156 yuan/ton at night (-0.42%); rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,816 yuan/ton during the day (0.38%) and 9,843 yuan/ton at night (0.28%). Malaysian palm oil futures (December contract) closed at 4,068 ringgit/ton with a -2.09% decline, and CBOT soybean oil futures closed at 50.61 cents/pound with a -0.67% decline [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Palm oil futures had a trading volume of 692,437 lots and an open interest of 425,907 lots; soybean oil futures had a trading volume of 320,656 lots and an open interest of 420,191 lots; rapeseed oil futures had a trading volume of 318,860 lots and an open interest of 243,924 lots [1]. 3.2 Spot Data - Prices and Changes: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,470 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,520 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,240 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,040 dollars/ton, down 15 dollars/ton [1]. - Basis: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 80 yuan/ton, that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 330 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 424 yuan/ton [1]. - Price Spreads: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 1,266 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 360 yuan/ton. Other spreads, such as palm oil 1 - 5 spread, soybean oil 1 - 5 spread, and rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread, also showed certain changes [1]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - Production: Malaysia's 2025 crude palm oil production is expected to exceed 19.5 million tons, higher than 19.3 million tons in 2024 [2]. - Exports: SGS estimates that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 20 were 471,222 tons, a 40.6% decrease compared to the same period last month [4]. - CFTC Positions: As of the week ending October 7, CBOT soybean long positions increased by 25,308 lots to 186,808 lots, short positions decreased by 22,899 lots to 146,934 lots; CBOT soybean oil long positions increased by 7,272 lots to 133,598 lots, short positions decreased by 4,830 lots to 9,324 lots [4]. - USDA Pressing Report: In August, the U.S. soybean crushing volume was 5.94 million tons (198 million bushels), and the corn consumption for fuel ethanol production was 463.4 million bushels, lower than the same period last year. The output of U.S. corn distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) in August decreased by 6.4% year - on - year [4]. - Planting Progress: Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area has reached 79.61% of the estimated area, lower than the same period last year. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting progress has increased by 12 percentage points and reached 24.6% of the planned area [5]. - European Pressing: In October 2025, the EU 27 + UK's rapeseed crushing volume was 1.555 million tons, soybean crushing volume was 1.063 million tons, and the total oilseed crushing volume was 3.157 million tons [6]. - Ukraine's Situation: Ukraine will continue to reduce the soybean planting area in 2026 due to reduced profitability. In 2025, the soybean planting area was about 2.1 million hectares, and as of November 21, the threshing volume was 4.72 million tons [6]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is - 1, and the trend intensity of soybean oil is not clearly stated in the report. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, indicating different levels of market sentiment [7].