棉花：预计维持震荡走势

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that cotton will maintain a volatile trend. The fundamental driving force for the rise in cotton prices remains weak, and the current market is mainly influenced by market sentiment [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,460 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.04%, and the night - session closing price was 13,495 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.26%. The closing price of CY2601 was 19,725 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.10%, and the night - session closing price was 19,805 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.41%. The price of ICE US cotton 3 was 63.93 cents/pound with an increase of 0.24%. The trading volume of CF2601 was 295,438 lots, an increase of 27,671 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 945,741 lots, an increase of 14,640 lots. The trading volume of CY2601 was 20,225 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 20,948 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 2,244, a decrease of 1,259 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 1,221, an increase of 74. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 17, a decrease of 10, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 27 [1]. - Spot Price Data: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,376 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,363 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Shandong was 14,852 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan or 0.03% from the previous day; the price in Hebei was 14,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan or 0.03%. The 3128B index was 14,796 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan or 0.03%. The international cotton index M was 71.77 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.04%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,590 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 21,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan or 0.04% [1]. - Spread Data: The CF1 - 5 spread was 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan from the previous day's spread. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 920 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [1]. Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Cotton spot trading has changed little, with textile enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases and having weak purchasing willingness. The spot fixed - price quotes are stable, and the spot sales basis is also stable. The current cotton outbound freight by truck has increased steadily. The freight from Northern Xinjiang's Kuitun to Shandong's Heze is about 665 yuan/ton, and from Southern Xinjiang's Aksu to Shandong's Heze is about 695 yuan/ton [2]. - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The overall trading of pure - cotton yarn is average, with stable quotes and a downward - shifting transaction focus. Some high - count combed yarn prices have increased steadily. Recently, textile enterprises are mainly delivering previous orders, with few new orders. Small and medium - sized textile enterprises produce as needed, with little inventory pressure and good sales. Some large - scale textile enterprises have a decline in the production - sales ratio, a slight increase in inventory, and a certain reduction in the operating rate. High - quality yarns such as pure Australian cotton in traceability orders are selling well, and some manufacturers are rushing for exports [2]. - US Cotton: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures first declined and then rose, mainly affected by market sentiment, and the fundamental driving force for the rise in cotton prices remains weak [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 to 2 [4].