Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-24 05:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the defense and military industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [6][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the military industry is entering a new growth cycle as the "14th Five-Year Plan" concludes and the "15th Five-Year Plan" approaches, with expectations for accelerated recovery in the industry [6][3]. - It notes that the military trade landscape is evolving due to increased global geopolitical uncertainties, leading to a surge in demand for military products, particularly in markets like the Middle East and Asia [6][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on key sectors within the military industry, such as next-generation equipment, unmanned weapons, and information technology, which are expected to see rapid growth starting in 2025 [6][3]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index fell by 1.72%, while the overall market indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index, experienced larger declines, indicating that the military sector outperformed these broader indices [3][7]. - The report provides a detailed performance analysis of individual stocks within the military sector, highlighting significant gainers such as Jianglong Shipbuilding (up 64.97%) and Aerospace Development (up 31.77%), while also noting underperformers like Tongyou Technology (down 15.95%) [3][13][14]. Valuation Changes - The report indicates that the current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the Shenwan military sector is at a historically high level, with a PE-TTM of 75.63, placing it in the upper range of historical valuations since January 2014 [6][14]. - It also notes that there is a divergence in valuations among sub-sectors, with aerospace and aviation equipment showing relatively high PE ratios compared to other segments [6][14]. Key Investment Targets - The report identifies several key investment targets within the military sector, including high-end combat capabilities and new quality combat forces, suggesting a focus on companies like AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (600316.SH) and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft (600768.SH) [6][19][21]. - It emphasizes the potential for significant returns from companies involved in advanced military technologies and systems, particularly those aligned with the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" initiatives [6][19].