燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报：降温将至美国气价上涨、库存提取欧洲气价下行-20251124

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that as temperatures drop, US gas prices are rising while European gas prices are declining due to inventory withdrawals [5][10] - It emphasizes that the overall supply remains sufficient, leading to a slight decrease in domestic gas prices [19] - The report suggests that the price mechanism is being streamlined, and demand is expected to increase [47] Price Tracking - As of November 21, 2025, US HH gas prices increased by 18.9% week-on-week, while European TTF prices decreased by 1.7% [10][15] - The report notes that domestic LNG prices remained stable with a slight decrease of 0.1% [5][19] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates that US gas storage levels decreased by 14 billion cubic feet to 39,460 billion cubic feet, a year-on-year decline of 0.6% [15] - European gas consumption from January to August 2025 was 288.4 billion cubic meters, an increase of 4.6% year-on-year [16] - Domestic gas apparent consumption from January to October 2025 increased by 0.7% to 354.1 billion cubic meters [24] Pricing Progress - The report states that 65% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [31] - It mentions that there is still a 10% room for price adjustment in city gas companies [31] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing price adjustments, such as Xin'ao Energy and China Gas [47][48] - It also suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling capabilities, like Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares [48] - The report highlights the importance of energy independence and suggests关注 companies with gas production capabilities, such as New Natural Gas and Blue Flame Holdings [48]