【国际原油】：原油：空单持有，或逐步考验4月前低

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report Hold short positions in crude oil, or it may gradually test the low before April [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. International Crude Oil - NYMEX crude oil futures January contract was at $58.06, down $0.94 per barrel, a month - on - month decrease of - 1.59% [1]. - ICE Brent crude oil futures January contract was at $62.56, down $0.82 per barrel, a month - on - month decrease of - 1.29% [1]. - SC2601 crude oil futures closed down 6.60 yuan per barrel, a decline of 1.46% to 446.40 yuan per barrel [1]. 2. Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - All light crude oil arbitrage windows flowing into USGC are closed. The large negative values indicate that local shale oil supply is sufficient and cost - competitive, strongly suppressing the import demand for light crude oil [2]. - For coking refineries, there are selective opportunities. The arbitrage windows for some heavy crude oils from the Americas are open, indicating they are economically attractive to specific refineries in the region [5]. 3. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - There are obvious selective arbitrage opportunities in the region. Forties in the North Sea and Saharan Blend in Africa are economical. The high arbitrage value of Urals crude oil is driving a large amount of Russian crude oil to flow into the region [6]. 4. Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - All arbitrage windows flowing into Northwest Europe are closed, indicating that the light crude oil market within the Atlantic Basin is relatively balanced or abundant, and it is more economical for European refineries to use local North Sea crude oil or discounted Urals crude oil [10]. 5. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - All arbitrage windows flowing into the Mediterranean are deeply closed. Urals crude oil has an absolute cost advantage and consolidates its position as the main supply source in the Mediterranean region [12]. 6. Northeast Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - For cracking refineries, ESPO crude oil is highly competitive and has a strong market share and cost advantage in the Northeast Asian market [14]. - For coking refineries, there are significant opportunities. The arbitrage window for South American crude oil Napo is open, which may drive imports from the Americas [14]. 7. Key Market News - US President Trump said that the Ukrainian "leadership" is ungrateful, and Europe continues to buy oil from Russia [15]. - US Treasury Secretary said the economy is not facing a recession risk, Trump is pressuring Russia to end the war, and the government shutdown caused a permanent $11 billion blow to US GDP [17]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky said that all parties have reached a consensus, and the US proposal may incorporate elements important to Ukraine's national interests [17]. - Trump said Iran wants to reach an agreement, and it is likely to be achieved [17]. - Trump said he will not lift sanctions on Russian oil [17].