一周观点：防御当先，静候良机-20251124

Group 1 - The report highlights a combination of strong non-farm payrolls and dovish Federal Reserve actions as illogical, suggesting that the resulting decline in U.S. markets may become a norm in the upcoming quarter [3][9] - The ongoing technological revolution may face a "bubble burst" moment, emphasizing the need to monitor whether technology positively impacts demand [3][9] - Market sentiment is expected to remain weak in the short term, recommending a cautious approach to positioning and waiting for better opportunities [3][9] Group 2 - Fiscal stimulus is anticipated to be a primary support mechanism for the U.S. economy moving forward [3][9] - The allocation towards the energy sector is seen as a response to overheating expectations regarding U.S. AI investments, suggesting a focus on short to medium-term trading strategies [3][9] - Long-term optimism is expressed for sectors such as insurance, anti-involution industries, Chinese internet companies, and military trade [3][9] Group 3 - In September, the U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations with an addition of 119,000 jobs, significantly higher than the anticipated 51,000 [8] - The unemployment rate in September rose to 4.4%, up from 4.3% in the previous month, indicating a healthy increase in labor force participation [8][10] - The report notes that the increase in labor force participation suggests more individuals are entering the job market, which may lead to a temporary rise in unemployment rates as they seek employment [8][10]