美联储鸽声重振，但分歧仍存：贵金属周度观察：-20251124

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Overall Trend: The precious metals market is expected to experience wide - range oscillations. The market is currently in a special stage of "ambiguous policy expectations + official data vacuum", and prices are mainly determined by the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts [3][4][6]. - Gold: In the long - term, factors supporting the strength of precious metals remain unchanged. After a rapid rise in October, the market needs to consolidate through oscillations. In the short - term, gold is in a high - level wide - range oscillation. Technically, it is in a triangular consolidation pattern, with support at $3950 - 4000 and resistance at $4200. The MACD and RSI indicators are in a neutral range, showing no clear long or short signals [4]. - Silver: In the short - term, silver prices are also determined by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, with increased volatility and high - level wide - range oscillations. Technically, it is in an ascending triangular consolidation pattern, with support at $48 - 48.5 and resistance at $55. The MACD and RSI indicators are in a neutral range. The long - term price center of silver will follow that of gold. The silver market has a fragile supply chain, and its price volatility is higher than that of gold [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - influencing Factors - Fed Interest Rate Cuts: The Fed's stance on interest rate cuts is unclear. There are still differences within the Fed on whether to cut rates in December. The market is pricing in three rate cuts in 2026. After the Fed's dovish remarks on Friday, the probability of a December rate cut rebounded to 71%. The lack of official data for the December Fed decision will lead to repeated fluctuations in the market around rate - cut expectations [9]. - Fed Independence: The selection of the next Fed chair and related events may trigger market expectations regarding the Fed's independence and its interest rate cut path in December 2025 and 2026 [9]. 3.2 ETF Position Tracking - Gold and Silver ETF Positions: The holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 3.43 tons to 1040.57 tons this week. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, increased to 15257.92 tons, with a decrease of 39.5 tons this week. This shows that institutional investors' physical allocation demand for gold and silver is at a high level [11][33]. - October Global Physical Gold ETFs: Global physical gold ETFs achieved capital inflows for five consecutive months, with a single - month inflow of $8.2 billion in October. Gold ETF trading volume soared to a record $17 billion per day, mainly driven by North American funds [38]. 3.3 Exchange Inventories The report mentions gold and silver exchange inventories but does not provide specific analysis content. Only the data sources are given, which are WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [48][54]. 3.4 Domestic and Foreign Futures - Spot Price Differences The report only mentions domestic and foreign futures - spot price differences and provides the data source, which is WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [60]. 3.5 Precious Metal Ratios The report only mentions precious metal ratios and does not provide specific analysis content. 3.6 Gold ETF Volatility Index The report only mentions the gold ETF volatility index and provides the data source, which is WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [70].