华泰证券今日早参-20251124

Macro Insights - Japan's government has introduced a supplementary budget of 21.3 trillion yen, nearly 3% of GDP, as a significant economic policy under the new administration, aiming to boost economic growth in the short term [2] - However, the lack of monetary policy normalization support for this fiscal stimulus may increase the risk of inflation detachment and raise the risk premium in the bond market [2] Market Strategy - The Hong Kong stock market is entering a favorable positioning phase, with recent adjustments providing value opportunities, particularly in consumer services, construction, textiles, and home appliances [3][5] - The report suggests focusing on sectors that have been undervalued or "wrongly killed," such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and automotive, as they may present greater recovery potential [3] - The technology sector in Hong Kong has seen significant corrections, but there remains potential for revaluation as liquidity conditions improve [3] Fixed Income Analysis - The fixed income market is currently experiencing a "pressure test," with global assets showing risk-off characteristics, and A-shares under pressure [8] - The report indicates that the bond market is in a "timely counterattack" window, but the upside may be limited, suggesting a cautious approach to trading opportunities [8] - Investors are advised to focus on low-priced bonds and quality new issues while reducing exposure to high-priced, overvalued securities [8] Oil and Gas Sector - OPEC+ has raised its production targets for December, but the overall supply-demand balance remains loose, with WTI and Brent crude prices declining by 3.2% and 2.6% respectively since the end of October [9] - The report anticipates that oil prices may remain in a downward range due to the supply-demand imbalance, projecting average Brent prices of $68 and $62 for 2025 and 2026 respectively [9] Utilities and Environmental Sector - The expansion of the carbon market is expected to enhance carbon reduction value, with the new plan covering an additional 30 billion tons of emissions, increasing the coverage to approximately 60% [10] - The report highlights the potential benefits for green electricity and environmental sectors due to the rigid demand for carbon reduction, recommending companies involved in carbon-related services [10] Company-Specific Insights - Miniso's Q3 revenue increased by 28.2% to 5.8 billion yuan, driven by effective large store strategies and improved operational efficiency, with a net profit of 770 million yuan [13] - Google is positioned to regain AI leadership with advancements in its AI ecosystem, including the development of competitive AI chips and applications in various sectors [14] - The report notes that the pharmaceutical company Stone Pharmaceutical has returned to revenue growth in Q3, with a focus on new product launches and collaborations enhancing its market position [15]