港股调整到哪一步了

Core Conclusions - Since October, the Hong Kong stock market has entered a phase of adjustment, primarily due to significant prior gains, tight USD liquidity, and a decline in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][5] - Market adjustments during a bull market are normal; historically, small pullbacks average a decline of 7%, while larger pullbacks average a decline of 17% [2][9] - USD liquidity is a short-term disturbance, and the ongoing AI wave suggests that the influx of new capital and the gathering of quality assets may continue to support the bull market in Hong Kong stocks [2][5] Investment Highlights - From a mid-term perspective, the influx of new capital and the gathering of quality assets in the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue, especially if short-term factors suppressing the market are resolved [4][20] - Hong Kong stocks possess scarcity value, particularly in sectors aligned with the current industrial development trends, such as AI applications [4][20] - There is potential for continued inflow of southbound capital, driven by institutional forces, which may further propel the Hong Kong market upward [4][20] - The technology sector, driven by AI, remains a key focus for market performance, with Hong Kong stocks benefiting from favorable policies regarding dividends and low interest rates [4][21] Market Performance Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance this year, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index reaching new highs in early October, with maximum gains of 47% and 61% respectively [5][7] - However, since mid-October, the market has experienced adjustments, with the Hang Seng Index declining by a maximum of 5.1% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 8.1% [6][7] - The adjustments are attributed to tight USD liquidity and concerns over AI sector bubbles, as well as significant prior gains in the market [7][8] Historical Context of Market Adjustments - In bull markets, adjustments can be categorized into two types: small pullbacks averaging a maximum decline of 7% and larger pullbacks averaging a maximum decline of 17% [9][13] - Historical data shows that small pullbacks typically do not exceed 30 trading days, while larger pullbacks average around 53 trading days [9][13] - The current market adjustment aligns with historical patterns, suggesting that the overall upward trend may remain intact despite short-term fluctuations [9][13]