镍:累库节奏稍有放缓,宏观与消息短线扰动;不锈钢:钢价承压低位震荡,但下方想象力有限
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-11-24 05:28
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are under pressure and fluctuating at a low level, with the nickel market also affected by various factors such as policy changes and production adjustments in Indonesia [1]. - The trend intensity for nickel is +1, and for stainless steel is also +1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Data: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 114,050, down 1,330 compared to the previous day; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,290, up 1 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 138,203, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 233,924 [1]. - Nickel - related Product Prices: The price of 1 imported nickel was 115,000, down 1,600 compared to the previous day; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 891, down 4 compared to the previous day [1]. - Stainless Steel Product Prices: The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 12,675, up 200 compared to the previous day; the price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taiyuan Iron and Steel/Zhangpu was 13,250, unchanged compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia's Nickel Mining Policy: The Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel production by about 600 nickel metal tons per month. The Indonesian government also imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies, and the issuance of new smelting licenses for some nickel - related products has been suspended [1][2][4]. - International Trade Policy: China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Trump may impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1st and implement export controls on "all key software" [2][3]. - Production Adjustment: Some nickel wet - process projects in Indonesian industrial parks will reduce production in December, affecting about 6000 nickel metal tons of output [4]. - Monetary Policy: New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [4].