铝周报：降息预期降温，铝价调整-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, after the Fed's hawkish October FOMC meeting and the unexpectedly strong US September non - farm payroll data, the expectation of a December rate cut dropped to 30%, leading to a decline in market risk appetite. With 200,000 tons of new production capacity put into operation in Xinjiang, supply increased slightly, while consumption weakened marginally. The supply - demand pattern was bearish, and aluminum prices were expected to correct, with attention on the 21,000 yuan support level [2][6]. - For cast aluminum, the start - up rate of aluminum alloy remained flat at 60.6% last week, with stable supply. Terminal consumption was resilient, and demand was stable. Although the exchange inventory increased slightly, the short - term adjustment of cast aluminum futures was mainly due to the decline in macro risk appetite, and the adjustment was expected to be limited due to stable supply - demand fundamentals and good cost support [2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - LME 3 - month aluminum price dropped from 2,858.5 yuan/ton on 2025/11/14 to 2,808 yuan/ton on 2025/11/21, a decrease of 50.5 yuan/ton [3]. - SHFE aluminum continuous third contract price dropped from 21,845 dollars/ton to 21,385 dollars/ton, a decrease of 460 dollars/ton [3]. - The spot average price dropped from 21,726 yuan/ton to 21,514 yuan/ton, a decrease of 212 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Market Review - In the electrolytic aluminum spot market, the weekly average price was 21,514 yuan/ton, a decrease of 212 yuan/ton from the previous week; the South China storage spot weekly average price was 21,386 yuan/ton, a decrease of 196 yuan/ton from the previous week [4]. - The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed a serious divergence among policymakers on rate cuts. The probability of a December rate cut was low according to swap contracts after the release of economic data [4][5]. - The start - up rate of the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry rose slightly by 0.4 percentage points to 62%, showing a structural differentiation. The start - up rate of aluminum cable was expected to continue a slight increase, while that of aluminum plate, strip, and foil was likely to decline gradually [5]. - On November 13, the social inventory of aluminum ingots remained flat at 627,000 tons compared with last Thursday, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 140,000 tons [5]. - For cast aluminum, the SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy on Friday was 21,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last Friday. The start - up rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises increased by 1.5% to 60.6%, and the exchange warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,599 tons to 58,000 tons [5]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Similar to the core viewpoints, the electrolytic aluminum price was expected to correct due to the decline in market risk appetite and the bearish supply - demand pattern, with attention on the 21,000 yuan support level [6]. - The short - term adjustment of cast aluminum futures was mainly due to the decline in macro risk appetite, and the adjustment was expected to be limited due to stable supply - demand fundamentals and good cost support [6]. 3.4 Industry News - India's AM Green Group plans to invest about $6 billion in a green industrial complex in Andhra Pradesh, with about $49.6 billion for a 1 - million - ton green aluminum project in Kakinada, to be built in two phases [8]. - In October 2025, the domestic scrap aluminum import volume was about 155,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 19% [8]. - In October 2025, the domestic primary aluminum import volume was about 248,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 42.1%. From January to October, the cumulative primary aluminum import volume was about 2.2108 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.2% [11]. - On November 19, 2025, the first contract AD2511 of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cast aluminum alloy futures was successfully delivered, with a delivery volume of about 22,900 tons and a delivery amount of about 476 million yuan. As of November 17, 2025, the cumulative trading volume was 596,400 lots, the total trading amount was 120.282 billion yuan, and the total standard warehouse receipt weight was 59,400 tons [11].