供应端过剩未改，氧化铝延续弱势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina supply - side remains in a state of sporadic and normal short - term maintenance, and the large - scale production cuts that the market is concerned about have not been achieved. The Xinjiang region has new electrolytic aluminum production capacity about to be put into operation, but the increase in demand is limited in scale. The overall market supply and demand are still in excess, there is also downward pressure on the cost side of ore, and the fundamentals' negative factors remain unchanged, so alumina continues to be weak [2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - From 2025/11/14 to 2025/11/21, the alumina futures (active) dropped from 2822 yuan/ton to 2713 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109 yuan/ton; the domestic alumina spot price dropped from 2868 yuan/ton to 2858 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the spot premium increased from 78 yuan/ton to 164 yuan/ton, an increase of 86 yuan/ton; the Australian alumina FOB remained at 320 US dollars/ton; the import profit and loss changed from 16.21 yuan/ton to - 6.92 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.1 yuan/ton; the exchange warehouse inventory decreased by 2744 tons, from 253654 tons to 250910 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons; the prices of domestic bauxite in various regions and the Guinea CIF price remained unchanged [3] Market Review - The main alumina futures contract fell 3.84% last week, closing at 2713 yuan/ton. The national weighted - average price in the spot market was reported at 2858 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of - 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. Affected by multiple factors such as supply restrictions of domestic bauxite and price - pressure transmission from downstream alumina enterprises, the price remained stagnant. There is an expected release of new production capacity for imported bauxite from Guinea, and the current port inventory in China is over 30 million tons, so there is some pressure on the imported ore price. On the supply side, the maintenance enterprises in Guangxi have resumed normal production this week, one roasting furnace in a Shandong factory is under maintenance, and one roasting furnace in a Hebei factory is still under maintenance. Overall, this week's alumina supply has increased slightly. As of November 20, China's alumina built - in production capacity was 114.80 million tons, the operating production capacity was 95.90 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.54%. On the consumption side, the operating production capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry remained stable. This week, electrolytic aluminum plants' purchases were still mainly for rigid demand and mostly in the form of bidding, the market activity was still low, and the change in alumina demand was limited. In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 2744 tons last Friday to 250,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [4] Market Outlook - Customs data shows that the single - month bauxite imports in October dropped to 13.77 million tons, the lowest in 2025, mainly affected by the rainy season in Guinea. Now that the rainy - season impact is over, there is an expected release of new production capacity for imported ore, and the subsequent imports are expected to be in sufficient supply. On the supply side, the previously - maintained alumina plants in Guangxi have resumed production, one alumina roasting production capacity in Shandong is under maintenance, and the overall alumina operating production capacity has basically remained stable with minor fluctuations. Last week, the operating production capacity remained at 95.90 million tons. On the consumption side, the electrolytic aluminum industry conducts rigid - demand bidding purchases, and consumption is stable. The warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 2744 tons during the week to 250,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. Overall, the alumina supply - side remains in a state of sporadic and normal short - term maintenance, and the large - scale production cuts that the market is concerned about have not been achieved. The Xinjiang region has new electrolytic aluminum production capacity about to be put into operation, but the increase in demand is limited in scale. The overall market supply and demand are still in excess, there is also downward pressure on the cost side of ore, and the fundamentals' negative factors remain unchanged, so alumina continues to be weak [2][6] Industry News - According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in October 2025, China imported 13.7661 million tons of bauxite, a month - on - month decrease of 13.32% and a year - on - year increase of 12.02%. From January to October 2025, China's cumulative bauxite imports were 171 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.11%. In October 2025, China's alumina import and export situation showed significant changes: the import volume was 189,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 215.64%; the export volume reached 175,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.71%. Indonesia's mining holding company MIND ID reaffirmed its commitment to the integration of bauxite downstream and energy transition through its second - phase project of the smelter - grade alumina refinery (SGAR). The facility, owned by the state - owned aluminum company INALUM, will use domestic bauxite reserves to double the existing annual alumina production capacity from 1 million tons to 2 million tons [7] Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts such as the alumina futures price trend, alumina spot price, alumina spot premium, alumina cost - profit, domestic bauxite price, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda price, thermal coal price, and alumina exchange inventory [9][14][15][16][18][21][23][26]