股指期货将偏强震荡黄金、白银期货将偏强震荡碳酸锂期货将震荡偏弱纯碱、原油、豆粕期货将偏弱震荡:期货行情前瞻研究
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-11-24 05:22
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on November 24, 2025. Index futures, gold, silver, copper, alumina, nickel, tin, rebar, methanol futures are likely to oscillate strongly; ten - year Treasury bond futures will probably oscillate widely; aluminum, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, PVC, and glass futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate; thirty - year Treasury bond futures, coking coal, soda ash, crude oil, fuel oil, PTA, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and natural rubber futures are likely to oscillate weakly; lithium carbonate futures will probably oscillate weakly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - Index Futures: On November 24, 2025, index futures are likely to oscillate strongly. For IF2512, resistance levels are 4457 and 4511 points, and support levels are 4400 and 4369 points; for IH2512, resistance levels are 2968 and 2994 points, and support levels are 2979 and 2963 points; for IC2512, resistance levels are 6872 and 6970 points, and support levels are 6700 and 6622 points; for IM2512, resistance levels are 7116 and 7211 points, and support levels are 6956 and 6900 points [2]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2512 is likely to oscillate widely on November 24, 2025, with support levels at 108.36 and 108.31 yuan, and resistance levels at 108.54 and 108.59 yuan. The thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 115.4 and 115.2 yuan, and resistance levels at 116.0 and 116.1 yuan [2][3]. - Precious Metal Futures: On November 24, 2025, the gold futures main contract AU2602 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels of 939.6 and 945.5 yuan/gram, with support levels at 930.0 and 926.9 yuan/gram. The silver futures main contract AG2602 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels of 1244 and 12163 yuan/kg, with support levels at 11680 and 11649 yuan/kg [2][3]. - Base Metal Futures: Copper, alumina, nickel, and tin futures are likely to oscillate strongly; aluminum futures are likely to oscillate and consolidate. For example, the copper futures main contract CU2601 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels of 86500 and 86800 yuan/ton, with support levels at 85600 and 85200 yuan/ton [3]. - Energy and Chemical Futures: Crude oil, soda ash, fuel oil, PTA futures are likely to oscillate weakly; lithium carbonate futures are likely to oscillate weakly. For example, the crude oil futures main contract SC2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and test support levels of 441 and 433 yuan/barrel, with resistance levels at 450 and 453 yuan/barrel [3][4]. - Agricultural Futures: Soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil futures are likely to oscillate weakly [4][6]. 3.2 Macro News and Trading Tips - International Events: The 20th G20 Leaders' Summit was held in Johannesburg, South Africa. China announced relevant initiatives, and leaders had bilateral meetings. The US is promoting a peace plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict, but negotiations have not reached an agreement [8][9][13]. - Domestic Economic Data: From January to October, the actual use of foreign capital in China was 621.93 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. In October, the total social electricity consumption was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [10][12]. - Domestic Policies: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission will support enterprises in Xiongan New Area. The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development promotes urban renewal and urban management in communities. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology conducts typical case collection [10]. 3.3 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - Index Futures: On November 21, 2025, index futures showed a weak downward trend. Multiple factors such as the decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about the AI bubble led to the recent market correction, but Chinese assets are still expected to have a "slow bull" [18][20][21]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On November 21, 2025, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, and the short - term downward pressure on the ten - year Treasury bond futures slightly increased [43]. - Precious Metal Futures: On November 21, 2025, gold and silver futures showed a downward trend. The short - term downward pressure increased, but in November, they are expected to oscillate strongly [49][55]. - Base Metal Futures: Most base metal futures showed a downward trend on November 21, 2025, with different degrees of short - term downward pressure [60][64][72]. - Energy and Chemical Futures: Energy and chemical futures showed different trends on November 21, 2025. For example, lithium carbonate futures dropped significantly, and the short - term downward pressure increased [80]. - Agricultural Futures: Agricultural futures showed a weak downward trend on November 21, 2025, with different degrees of short - term downward pressure [125][127][130].