中辉有色观点-20251124

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure at high levels [1] - Tin: Under pressure at high levels [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure at high levels [1] - Nickel: Weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level correction [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The long - term support logic for gold remains unchanged due to repeated internal Fed discussions on interest rate cuts and new geopolitical variables. Silver follows gold and other non - ferrous metals, with greater elasticity. Copper has long - term upward potential despite high inventories. Zinc is under short - term pressure and is expected to have an oversupply situation in the long run. Aluminum is under pressure at high levels due to the off - season effect. Nickel's supply - demand surplus persists, and its price remains weak. Lithium carbonate has short - term correction space [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Information: SHFE gold is at 926.94, down 0.91% from the previous value and 0.27% week - on - week; COMEX gold is at 4063, down 0.34% from the previous value and 0.11% week - on - week. SHFE silver is at 11680, down 3.07% from the previous value and 2.12% week - on - week; COMEX silver is at 49.66, down 0.01 from the previous value and 1.74% week - on - week. The dollar index is at 100.15, down 0.07% from the previous value and up 0.62% week - on - week [2]. - Underlying Logic: There are many data and event fluctuations, and there is support below for gold and silver. The long - term support for gold comes from Fed interest rate policy uncertainty, Japanese economic stimulus, and geopolitical factors [1][3]. Copper - Market Review: The overnight closing price of SHFE copper rose. The latest price of SHFE copper is 86180 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day; LME copper is at 10778 dollars/ton, up 0.86% from the previous day [5]. - Industrial Logic: The global supply of copper concentrates remains tight, with the latest TC at - 41.72 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 dollars/ton. In October, China imported 245.1 million tons of copper concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The downstream actively purchased at low prices after the copper price decline, and the weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises was 70.07%, a month - on - month increase of 3.19% [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: Backed by the 85,000 yuan mark, try to go long on dips. In the medium - to - long term, be bullish on copper. The short - term range for SHFE copper is [85,000, 88,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper, it is [10,500, 11,000] dollars/ton [1][7]. Zinc - Market Review: SHFE zinc was under pressure and fluctuated narrowly. The latest price of SHFE zinc is 22350 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day; LME zinc is at 2992 dollars/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day [8]. - Industrial Logic: The supply of zinc concentrates is short - term tight, and the processing fee of domestic zinc concentrates has continued to decline. In October, the output of refined zinc increased by 1.71 million tons month - on - month to 61.72 million tons. Consumption has entered the off - season, the domestic zinc ingot export window has opened, and the LME zinc inventory has increased to 47325 tons, alleviating the soft squeeze risk [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, zinc is under pressure and fluctuates narrowly, waiting for more macro - level guidance. In the medium - to - long term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds. The range for SHFE zinc is [22,000, 22,600] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc, it is [2950, 3050] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - Market Review: The aluminum price was under pressure at high levels, and alumina showed a weak trend at low levels. The latest price of LME aluminum is 2790.5 dollars/ton, down 0.57% from the previous value; SHFE aluminum is at 21340 yuan/ton, down 0.88% from the previous value [11]. - Industrial Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut at the end of the year has weakened. Overseas electrolytic aluminum plants have cut production by 21 million tons and are expected to cut production further in March next year. The domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in November is 62.1 million tons, flat compared to last week. For alumina, the bauxite shipment in Guinea is expected to increase, and the domestic alumina market remains in an oversupply situation [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rallies for SHFE aluminum in the short term, paying attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory. The operating range for the main contract is [21,000 - 21,600] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - Market Review: The nickel price continued to be weak, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined. The latest price of LME nickel is 14405 dollars/ton, down 0.35% from the previous value; SHFE nickel is at 114050 yuan/ton, down 1.15% from the previous value [15]. - Industrial Logic: The expectation of a Fed interest rate cut at the end of the year has weakened. Indonesia plans to lower the nickel production target in 2026. The global refined nickel inventory has reached a five - year high. The terminal consumption of stainless steel has gradually weakened, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: Take profits gradually on dips for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the change in stainless steel inventory. The operating range for the main nickel contract is [113,000 - 116,000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2601 opened low and closed at the daily limit down [20]. - Industrial Logic: The total inventory has declined for 14 consecutive weeks, but there is obvious inventory accumulation in the trader segment. The production enthusiasm of lithium salt plants has increased, and the operating rate still has room to rise. Terminal demand remains strong, but the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in November has slowed down [21]. - Strategy Recommendation: Wait and see in the range of [89,500 - 93,000] yuan/ton [22]