12月美联储降息或遇阻，沪铜或震荡运行

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Copper prices are expected to mainly show a high - level oscillation trend. There are limited arbitrage opportunities for Shanghai copper, and it is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [6][48]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract CU2601 of Shanghai copper futures mainly showed an oscillating market, ranging from around 85,450 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 86,850 yuan/ton [8]. - Last week, the price of LME copper futures showed an oscillating trend, with the contract price running around 10,660 - 10,848 US dollars/ton [11]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - The minutes of the Fed's October monetary policy meeting showed that due to the moderate economic expansion and the gradual cooling of the labor market without a sharp deterioration, Fed officials had obvious differences on whether to further cut interest rates in December. There were also differences in opinions on the impact of tariffs on inflation. Some officials thought that without considering the impact of tariffs, the current inflation level was close to the Fed's target value, while more officials believed that the overall inflation level had been continuously higher than the target value and there were few signs that it could fall back to the 2% target level in a timely and sustainable manner [5][14][47]. - CME's "FedWatch" showed that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December was 29.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 70.2%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut was 49.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 36.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut was 14.5% [5][15][47]. 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of November 21, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 85,870 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market was 85,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 610 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Tianjin were 86,490 yuan/ton, 86,460 yuan/ton, 86,600 yuan/ton, and 86,570 yuan/ton respectively [18]. - As of November 21, 2025, the premium and discount of electrolytic copper remained around a rise of 60 yuan/ton, a rise of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [18]. 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - As of November 20, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 41.82 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.37 US cents/pound. As of October 2025, the monthly refined copper output was 1.204 million tons, a decrease of 62,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [24]. - As of October 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.004 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3% [30]. 3.5 Inventory Situation - As of November 21, 2025, the cathode copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 110,603 tons, an increase of 1,196 tons from the previous week. As of November 19, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 157,875 tons, an increase of 17,375 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 6%. As of November 20, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 398,513 tons, an increase of 6,835 tons from the previous trading day [34]. - As of November 20, 2025, the inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 112,200 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 17,200 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 45,600 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 1,000 tons from the previous week [34].