Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an overall rating of "Bullish Oscillation" for the electrolytic aluminum industry [4][11] Core Viewpoints - Mid - term (2026): The global supply growth rate of primary aluminum is expected to slow down, while demand is likely to remain resilient due to the global manufacturing recovery. The supply gap is expected to widen compared to 2025, indicating a bullish mid - term supply - demand pattern [4] - Short - term (November 2025): The aluminum price may fluctuate. There is no significant new demand increment, and although the demand is resilient, the exploration above 22,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum usually requires major supply disruptions. The supply from Guinea is expected to be stable at the end of the year, and domestic bauxite and alumina inventories are abundant [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall View Supply - Bauxite: The market is in a state of oversupply. Market participants expect an increase in shipments from Guinea at the end of the year, and the cumulative import volume growth rate of bauxite this year is higher than the cumulative production growth rate of alumina [9][12] - Alumina: As of November 21, 2025, the domestic built - in capacity is about 11,255 million tons, the operating capacity is about 9,660 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 85.46%. In 2026, about 1,440 million tons/year of new capacity will be put into production, mainly in the first half of the year in the southwest and northern coastal regions. The supply - demand contradiction is still severe due to high inventory and new capacity [9] - Electrolytic Aluminum: In October 2025, the domestic built - in capacity was about 4,571.65 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 4,455.93 million tons. The domestic smelting profit is high, and the supply is steadily increasing. However, overseas supply may decrease due to power shortages, and the global aluminum supply has entered a low - growth stage [9] Demand - Aluminum Profiles: The weekly industry starting rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 52.6%. The construction profile market sentiment is weak, while the automotive profile orders are expected to last until the end of the year. The procurement of photovoltaic component factories has slowed down, and the starting rate is expected to decline slightly [10] - Aluminum Plate, Strip and Foil: The starting rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 66.0%, but it will continue to decline due to the off - season, uncertain environmental policies, and lack of order support. The starting rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 70.4%, and the demand in traditional consumption areas is weak [10] - Aluminum Cables: The weekly starting rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.4%. Supported by grid orders, it is expected to continue to recover [10] - Alloys: The starting rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry remained stable at 59.8%, showing a stable supply - demand situation. The starting rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable at 60.6%, and it is expected to remain stable in the short term [10] Inventory - Electrolytic Aluminum: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 61.9 million tons, basically stable since November, about 15% higher than the same period last year, and slightly below the mid - axis level since 2023. The in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum is at a low level in recent years, and the outbound volume has decreased significantly since the end of October. The inventory of aluminum rods is 13.62 million tons, about 2% lower than last week and about 31% higher than last year. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by about 1% compared to last week and about 23% compared to last year, remaining at a low level in recent years [10] Profit - Alumina: The average full - cost in the past month was about 2,800 yuan/ton, the spot theoretical profit was about 50 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract theoretical profit was - 70 yuan/ton [11][19] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The current average production cost is about 16,950 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 4,200 yuan/ton (last week it was 4,800 yuan/ton), with a relatively high profit level [11][19] Market Expectation and Outlook - Market Expectation: The strong US dollar and low interest - rate cut expectations at the macro level suppress the aluminum price. The domestic supply is at a high level, the demand has entered the off - season, the inventory support is limited, the capital sentiment is cautious, and the current spot trading is still weak, so the correction may not be over [11] - Outlook: At the end of November, the macro - guidance is slightly weak. The domestic supply is stable, while the demand has further seasonal contraction pressure. The social inventory may slightly increase, and the price is expected to oscillate under pressure. The main 2601 contract is expected to be in the range of 21,000 - 21,700 yuan/ton in the next week [11] 2. Important Industry Link Price Changes - Bauxite: The import price is under pressure. The price of bauxite SI2 - 3% Guinea decreased by 0.69% week - on - week, and the prices of some other types remained stable [12] - Alumina: It has been oscillating downward since mid - August. The price of Henan first - grade alumina decreased by 0.18% week - on - week [12] - Other: Coal prices have been rising since September, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be strong at the end of the year. The prices of some other raw materials such as pre - baked anodes and ice crystals have also changed to varying degrees [12] 3. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - Bauxite: The port inventory of imported bauxite decreased slightly, and it has been fluctuating around the annual high of 2,850 million tons since August. The domestic bauxite inventory is abundant [16] - Alumina: It has been accumulating inventory since the end of May and is currently at a high level in recent years. The inventory of alumina plants and ports decreased slightly this week, while the in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to accumulate rapidly [16] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The domestic mainstream consumption area inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots remained stable, and the inventory of aluminum rods decreased [16] 4. Supply - Demand Situation - The off - season characteristics of the aluminum processing industry are more obvious this week, with significant structural differentiation in the sector. The primary aluminum alloy has stable supply and demand; the starting rate of aluminum cables has slightly increased supported by grid orders; the traditional demand for aluminum plates and strips is weak; the construction profiles are sluggish, and the demand for packaging foil has weakened; the recycled aluminum is still restricted by the tight raw material supply [25] 5. Futures - Spot Structure - The current spot - end price is under pressure, and the Shanghai aluminum futures price structure is moderately weak [30] 6. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 2,040 yuan/ton (pre - holiday was - 1,840 yuan/ton). The current spread of primary aluminum and alloys is at the mid - axis level in recent years and has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [34][36] 7. Market Fund Situation - LME Aluminum: The net long position of funds is near the high level since April 2022. In the latest period, the net long position increased slightly, and both the long and short camps reduced their positions. Overseas funds still have a positive expectation for the aluminum price [38] - SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum: The net long position of the main force significantly reduced this week, with the long camp reducing positions more than the short camp. The net long position of funds with a financial speculation background continued to reduce positions, and funds with a background of mid - downstream enterprises are in a stalemate between long and short. Overall, the main funds still tend to adjust [41]
电解铝期货品种周报-20251124
Chang Cheng Qi Huo·2025-11-24 05:41