政策预期再起

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by over 5% [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence from market sentiment, suggesting that a reduction in industry risk assessment and increasing confidence in a medium to long-term recovery path are the main drivers for the recovery of real estate stocks. Despite a short-term acceleration in market decline, expectations for enhanced real estate policies in December and the first quarter of 2026 are strengthening the investment value of quality real estate stocks [2][4]. Summary by Sections Policy Expectations - Recent reports indicate that the Chinese decision-makers are considering a new round of real estate policies, including interest subsidies for new personal housing loans, increasing personal income tax deductions for mortgage payments, and further reducing housing transaction taxes. This has led to a rise in real estate stock prices. The effectiveness of such policies, particularly interest subsidies, is crucial for short-term market recovery, depending on the magnitude and duration of the subsidies [3][4]. Market Data - In October, the real estate market showed significant declines, with a 19% year-on-year drop in sales area (61.47 million square meters) and a 24% decrease in sales value (CNY 597.7 billion), marking the largest declines since the second half of 2024. New personal mortgage loans fell by 30% year-on-year to CNY 95 billion, and development investment decreased by 23% year-on-year. The market sentiment remains pessimistic, and the report emphasizes the need for substantial fiscal policies, such as interest subsidies, to restore market confidence [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks for investment: China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy), Poly Developments (600048, Buy), Binjiang Group (002244, Not Rated), and Jindi Group (600383, Accumulate) [5].