油脂周报：马棕高频大数据与美生柴共振，施压油脂盘面-20251124

Report Title - The report is titled "Oil Weekly Report 20251121: The Resonance of Malaysian Palm Oil High-Frequency Data and US Biodiesel Pressures the Oil Futures Market" [1][2] Investment Rating - The document does not mention the investment rating of the industry. Core Views - Palm Oil: The downside space is limited, with support at the [8300] price level. The contract is p2601. In the medium term, the pattern is slightly bullish. Although the domestic inventory has reached a moderately high level in history, and the near - month purchases have recovered, the consumption remains weak, and the supply - demand is relatively loose. In the long - term, the tight supply pattern in Southeast Asia continues, and biodiesel policies support the price center [3]. - Rapeseed Oil: The downside space is limited, with support at the [9400] price level. The contract is Ol601. Globally, the 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to recover, which may suppress the price center. Domestically, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, and the expected tightening of supply in the far - month has been alleviated. In the long - term, the increased import capital cost due to the margin on Canadian rapeseed still provides support [3]. - Soybean Oil: The downside space is limited, with support at the [7700] price level. The contract is y2601. Abroad, the supply pressure of US soybeans is emerging during the harvest season, but the reduction in planting area and the increase in consumption due to biodiesel policies lead to a tightening supply. Domestically, the near - term supply of soybeans and soybean oil is loose, and the far - month supply is expected to ease. It mainly follows other oils in a bullish oscillation [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Southeast Asian Palm Oil - Market Performance: This week, BMD crude palm oil first rose and then fell, with a slight downward shift in the center of gravity. The market was first boosted by the US reaffirming the 2026 RVO target but then weakened due to high - frequency data showing an increase in Malaysian production and a significant decline in exports in November [13][14]. - Supply and Demand Data - Malaysia: In October, the production was 2.0439 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 11.02% and a year - on - year increase of 13.72%), consumption was 282,400 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 15.41% and a year - on - year increase of 10%), exports were 1.0929 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 18.58% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%), and the end - of - month inventory was 1.4645 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 4.11% and a year - on - year increase of 3.07%). From November 1 - 20, the export volume decreased, and the production increased [16]. - Indonesia: As of August, the inventory remained at a low level in history. In August, the production was 5.64 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.66%), exports were 3.47 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.98% and a year - on - year increase of 5.56%), and the end - of - month inventory was 2.54 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.17% and a year - on - year increase of 3.67%). The reference price of crude palm oil in November was raised [34]. - Indian Market: After the festival, India's purchases slowed down, but due to rigid demand, the imports are expected to remain at a relatively high level year - on - year. Currently, India's oil and palm oil inventories have returned to a moderately low level in history [37][52]. 2. US Soybeans and Soybean Oil - Market Performance: This week, CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell, with the center of gravity remaining basically unchanged. CBOT soybean oil first rose and then fell, with a slight weekly increase [50][51]. - Supply and Demand Factors - Harvest Progress: As of November 17, the soybean harvest progress was 95%, compared with 98% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 96% [53]. - Biodiesel Policy: The US biodiesel policy is unclear. There are considerations to postpone the reduction of incentives for imported biodiesel, which may affect the demand for US soybean oil [53]. - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2021/2022 to 2025/2026, the global soybean production shows certain fluctuations, and the consumption and inventory also change accordingly. For example, in 2025/2026, the global production is expected to be 421.748 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.26% [56]. 3. South American Soybeans and Soybean Oil - Planting Progress - Brazil: As of November 15, the 2025/26 soybean planting progress was 69%, higher than that of the previous week but lower than the same period last year. The production is expected to continue to increase [78]. - Argentina: As of November 12, the soybean planting progress was 12.9%, lower than the same period last year [72]. - Weather Outlook: In Brazil, the soybean - producing areas have good weather for sowing, but there may be a risk of deterioration in December. In Argentina, the soybean - producing areas may gradually enter a dry weather pattern [73][78]. 4. Global Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - Production Forecast: In the 2025/26 year, the USDA expects a restorative increase in production. Canada, the EU, and Australia are all expected to increase production. For example, Canada's rapeseed production is estimated to be 20.03 million tons [110]. - Policy Impact: China has imposed a 75.8% margin on imported rapeseed from Canada. Although there are signs of relaxation in Sino - Canadian relations, there has been no substantial progress, which provides support for rapeseed oil prices [111]. - Global Rapeseed Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2021/2022 to 2025/2026, the global rapeseed production, consumption, and inventory change. In 2025/2026, the global production is expected to be 92.273 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7.30% [115]. 5. Domestic Oil Supply and Demand - Market Performance: This week, the domestic three major oil indexes were mainly weak. Palm oil has a pattern of weak current situation but strong future expectations. Soybean oil's far - month supply tightening expectation has improved, and rapeseed oil is supported by the lack of substantial progress in Sino - Canadian trade [129]. - Pressing and Production: In the 46th week (November 8 - 14), the soybean - pressing soybean oil production was 304,700 tons, and the expected production in the 47th week is 446,300 tons. The rapeseed - pressing volume of coastal oil mills is 0 tons, and the palm oil trading volume has increased [132][133]. - Import and Inventory: As of November 14, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.223 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.83% and a year - on - year increase of 11.31%. Among them, soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventories decreased slightly, while palm oil inventory increased significantly [158][159]. - Cost - Profit: The import costs and import profits of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil show certain fluctuations [148][152][153]. - Basis and Spread: The domestic soybean oil spot basis is generally weak, the palm oil basis is basically flat, and the rapeseed oil basis has a small decline. There are also corresponding changes in the spreads between different contracts and different varieties [189][237][244][245].