银河期货烧碱周报-20251124

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The liquid caustic soda market is in a pattern of increasing supply, weak demand, inventory accumulation, and profit contraction, with a short - term bearish trend. It is expected that the prices of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda will maintain a weak operation with a stable - to - decreasing trend next week [4]. - The alumina market continues to operate weakly and steadily, and it is expected that the spot price of alumina will still fluctuate narrowly next week, and the subsequent overall downward pressure trend is expected to continue [17]. - The caustic soda industry has a slight increase in start - up, and the unilateral trend of caustic soda is weak. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [5][19]. Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - Supply: Although some caustic soda plants are under maintenance, the overall industry operating load rate has increased to 90.29%, and the caustic soda output has increased by 0.55% week - on - week to 871,000 tons, with the supply pressure slightly increasing [4]. - Demand: The support from the demand side is limited. Although the operating rate of the alumina production capacity of the main downstream has rebounded to 76.76%, the non - aluminum downstream's enthusiasm for receiving goods is not high, and the viscose staple fiber industry's losses have intensified, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [4]. - Inventory: There is a significant inventory accumulation. The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda plants in Shandong has increased by 13.39% week - on - week, and the inventory of sample enterprises in East China has soared by 25.78%, increasing the manufacturers' shipping pressure [4]. - Profit: The profits have been significantly reduced. Affected by the double decline in the prices of liquid caustic soda and liquid chlorine, the profitability of chlor - alkali enterprises has deteriorated. Enterprises without self - owned power plants in Shandong have turned from profit to loss, and the profits of enterprises with self - owned power plants have also dropped by 28.83% [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: The caustic soda trend is weak [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see for the time being [5]. - Options: Wait and see for the time being [5]. 2. Core Logic Analysis - In Shandong, the delivery volume of liquid caustic soda from large alumina manufacturers has increased, and the price has decreased. The price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda purchased by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong has been successively reduced, and the current delivery volume has significantly rebounded to 13,368 tons [7][9]. - The factory inventory has increased by 6.3% week - on - week. As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of sample enterprises of fixed liquid caustic soda with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country has increased by 6.32% week - on - week and 80.65% year - on - year. Inventories in various regions are generally on the rise [10][13]. - Alumina continues to operate weakly and steadily. The national alumina operating level has fluctuated slightly this week, and it is expected to return to normal next week. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises has increased, and the demand for spot purchases has decreased. It is expected that the spot price of alumina will still fluctuate narrowly next week [17]. - The caustic soda start - up has slightly increased. This week, the average utilization rate of the capacity of sample caustic soda enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China has increased by 0.5% week - on - week. The load in North China and Northeast China has increased, while the start - up in East China, Central China, and Southwest China has declined due to plant maintenance and production reduction [19]. 3. Weekly Data Tracking Price Data - Caustic soda futures price: Including the price trend, basis, position, and warehouse receipt volume of the SH01 contract, as well as the price difference between the 1 - 5 months [23]. - 32% liquid caustic soda spot price: The price trends of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang [26]. - 50% caustic soda spot price: The price trends of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong [29]. - Flake caustic soda spot price: The price trends of flake caustic soda in Shandong, Southwest, Northwest, Guangdong, and Guangxi [31]. - Caustic soda variety price difference: The price differences between flake caustic soda and 50% caustic soda, 32% caustic soda in Shandong, and the price differences between different varieties in Jiangsu and Guangdong [33]. - Caustic soda regional price difference: The price differences of 32% and 50% caustic soda between Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong, as well as the price differences of flake caustic soda between different regions [36]. - Caustic soda profit: The profit trends of caustic soda and chlor - alkali in Shandong and Jiangsu, as well as the price trends of liquid chlorine [39]. Inventory Data - Caustic soda inventory: The inventory trends of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda in factories and the market [41][42]. - Caustic soda inventory by province: The inventory trends of liquid caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu [45]. Production and Start - up Data - Caustic soda start - up: The start - up trends of caustic soda and solid caustic soda, as well as the output trends [48]. - Caustic soda production by province: The production trends of caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang [50]. - Newly - added caustic soda capacity: A total of 2.1 million tons of newly - added caustic soda capacity is expected to be put into production in 2025 [52]. - Caustic soda plant maintenance: The maintenance situations of caustic soda plants in different regions [54]. Consumption and Related Market Data - Caustic soda consumption: The demand and weekly consumption trends of caustic soda, liquid caustic soda, and flake caustic soda [56][57]. - Alumina operating capacity: The production, operating capacity, and start - up trends of alumina [60][61]. - Newly - added alumina capacity: A total of 10.8 million tons of newly - added alumina capacity is expected to be put into production in 2025, and 12 million tons in 2026 [65]. - Viscose staple fiber: The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry this week has increased by 1.75% week - on - week [66]. - Printing and dyeing start - up: The start - up rates of printing and dyeing enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are generally stable, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment in the industry [70]. - Caustic soda export: The export volume, FOB price, and export profit trends of caustic soda [72][73]. - Caustic soda export destinations: The export volumes of caustic soda to Australia, Indonesia, Taiwan, and Vietnam [76][77][78][79]. - Overseas alumina newly - added capacity: It is estimated that 4.5 million tons of newly - added alumina capacity will be put into production overseas in 2025, and most of the new alumina plants in Indonesia have been put into production, and the caustic soda stockpiling has been completed [81].