油脂数据日报-20251124

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Malay palm oil has increasing production and decreasing exports, facing significant short - term pressure, and should be treated bearishly [2] - Rapeseed oil is expected to change the supply shortage situation due to the supply expectations of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and there may be a catch - up decline compared to last year's trend [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - 24 - degree palm oil (2025/11/21): Tianjin price is 8,660 (down 200 from 2025/11/20), Zhangjiagang is 8,540 (down 200), Huangpu is 8,470 (down 200) [1] - First - grade soybean oil (2025/11/21): Tianjin price is 8,330 (down 100 from 2025/11/20), Zhangjiagang is 8,470 (down 100), Huangpu is 8,520 (down 100) [1] - Fourth - grade rapeseed oil (2025/11/21): Zhangjiagang price is 10,170 (up 100 from 2025/11/20), Wuhan is 10,220 (up 100), Chengdu is 10,450 (up 100) [1] 3.2 Futures Data - Bean - palm main contract spread (2025/11/21): - 360, up 62 from 2025/11/20 [1] - Rapeseed - bean main contract spread (2025/11/21): 1,626, up 71 from 2025/11/20 [1] - Palm oil warehouse receipts (2025/11/21): 50, down 450 from 2025/11/20 [1] - Soybean oil warehouse receipts (2025/11/21): 24,625, down 2 from 2025/11/20 [1] - Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts (2025/11/21): 4,033, down 98 from 2025/11/20 [1] 3.3 Production and Export - Malaysian palm oil production: According to SPPOMA, from November 1 - 20, the yield per unit area increased by 10.32% compared to the same period last month [1] - Malaysian palm oil export: According to ITS, from November 1 - 20, exports decreased by 20.5% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 15, decreased by 15.5%; from November 1 - 10, decreased by 12.8%. According to AmSpec, from November 1 - 20, exports decreased by 14% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 15, decreased by 10%; from November 1 - 10, decreased by 10% [1] 3.4 Inventory - Domestic palm oil: As of November 14, the national commercial inventory was 65.32 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.36%, at a recent high [1] - Domestic soybean oil: As of November 14, the national commercial inventory was 114.85 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75% [2] - Rapeseed oil import: The import volume in November is expected to be 22.6 tons (a month - on - month increase of 26.3%) due to the concentrated arrival of new - season Russian rapeseed oil [2] 3.5 US Soybean Forecast - The 2025/26 US soybean production forecast is 4.266 billion bushels, the yield per unit area is 53.1 bushels per acre, and the ending inventory is 0.304 billion bushels [1] - The 2025/26 US soybean export forecast is 1.635 billion bushels, a decrease of 50 million bushels from the September forecast, mainly affected by the enhanced export competitiveness of South American soybeans and the slowdown of international procurement rhythm [1]