Orient Securities·2025-11-24 06:03Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The Grasberg copper mine has announced a resumption plan, with expectations for mid-term copper smelting fees to have upward potential [2] - The global second-largest copper mine, Grasberg, is expected to resume large-scale production by Q2 2026, maintaining a copper output of 1 billion pounds (approximately 454,000 tons) in 2026, with an average annual output potentially reaching 1.6 billion pounds (approximately 726,000 tons) from 2027 to 2029 [7] - The resumption of multiple copper mines is anticipated to alleviate supply tensions, with the Cobre Panamá mine also expected to restart production, contributing an additional 300,000 to 350,000 tons of copper metal annually [7] - The growth rate of copper smelting output from 2026 to 2027 is expected to be lower than that of copper supply, indicating potential marginal improvement in smelting fees [7] - Investment opportunities are suggested in major copper smelting companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630, Buy) and Zijin Mining (601899, Buy), with other notable mentions including Jiangxi Copper (600362, Not Rated) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993, Not Rated) [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report focuses on the non-ferrous and steel industries, highlighting the dynamics and trends affecting these sectors [1] Copper Mining Sector - Grasberg's production is expected to stabilize and grow, contributing to a projected copper production growth rate of approximately 3.3% in 2026 [7] - The reopening of Cobre Panamá is also a significant factor in easing supply constraints [7] Copper Smelting Sector - The anticipated growth in copper smelting output is expected to lag behind the supply side, suggesting a favorable outlook for smelting fees [7] - Investment recommendations are made for companies with strong resource bases and production expansion potential [7]