油脂周报：油脂缺乏利多驱动，盘面整体震荡下跌-20251124

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, affected by factors such as biodiesel policies and bearish high - frequency data, the overall trend of edible oils has been weak. Although Malaysian palm oil is entering the production - reduction season and will gradually reduce inventory, the inventory is expected to remain at a relatively high level with a slow reduction speed. Indonesian inventory is continuously at a low level, and the origin quotes are stable with a slight increase. Short - term palm oil lacks continuous positive factors, and the rebound height may be limited. [4][31] - Currently, there is no prominent core contradiction in soybean oil. Its price mainly fluctuates with the overall trend of edible oils, showing weak upward momentum but more resistance to decline. [4][31] - In the short term, the domestic rapeseed supply is insufficient, and the import volume of rapeseed oil is also limited. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline, which still provides some support for the rapeseed oil price. [4][31] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation International Market - Malaysian Palm Oil: SPPOMA predicts that the Malaysian palm oil production from November 1 - 20 increased by 10% month - on - month, significantly higher than the 4% increase in the first 15 days. ITS predicts that the Malaysian palm oil exports from November 1 - 20 decreased by 20% month - on - month, with a greater decline than the 16% decrease in the first 15 days. There is a possibility that the Malaysian palm oil inventory may increase instead of decrease in November. Malaysia set the reference price of palm oil in December at 4,206.38 ringgit, lower than 4,262 ringgit in November, with the tax rate remaining at 10%. [5][8] - Indonesian Palm Oil: The Indonesian government revised the calculation rule of CPO reference price and announced that the CPO export price in December is $926.14. The tax decreased from $124 to $74, a reduction of $50. Recently, the prices of fruit bunches and CPO tender in Indonesia have rebounded, currently lower than last year's level but still at a relatively high level in the same historical period. [13] - US Market: The market rumor that the EPA proposed a RVO target of 561 million gallons for next year led to a sharp rise in the external edible oil market. However, the final US biodiesel plan has not been finalized, and the market is still waiting. The US Department of Energy plans to revoke the Clean Energy Demonstration Office and the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office, and add the Hydrocarbon and Geothermal Energy Office and the Fusion Energy Office. It also plans to review and potentially withdraw about $13 billion in unallocated funds originally intended for subsidizing wind, solar, battery, and electric vehicle projects. The price difference between US and Argentine soybean oil has been continuously narrowing and is expected to remain at a low level. [17] Domestic Market - Palm Oil: As of November 14, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 653,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 55,900 tons or 9.36%. The origin quotes are stable, the import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 100, and it is rumored that there were 2 ship purchases this week. The basis is stable. Short - term palm oil lacks positive drivers, with limited downward and upward space. Consider short - term long positions on dips or high - selling and low - buying range operations. [20] - Soybean Oil: As of November 14, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.1485 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8,700 tons or 0.75%. The inventory has reached an inflection point, and the basis is stable. It is rumored that some US soybeans were purchased this week, accelerating the purchase progress. Spot trading is average, but提货 is good. It is expected that the soybean oil inventory will be difficult to increase. In the short term, the domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. Temporarily observe, and consider lightly testing long positions after a callback and stabilization. [26] - Rapeseed Oil: As of November 14, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,000 tons. It is still at a high level in the same historical period, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. The FOB quote of European rapeseed oil is stable at around $1,100, and the import profit inversion has widened to around - 1,000. It is rumored that there was rapeseed oil import this week. The basis of rapeseed oil remains high, but the downstream acceptance is average. It is expected that the de - stocking trend along the coast will continue. Russia cancelled the price - reduction coefficient for food railway transportation, which is estimated to increase the transportation cost by about $10. In the short term, the overall edible oil has weak upward momentum. The domestic rapeseed oil fundamentals have not changed much. With insufficient rapeseed supply, high import costs, and continuous marginal de - stocking, there is still some support for the rapeseed oil price. Consider buying on dips for OI03 or 05 contracts when the rapeseed procurement is not fully liberalized. [29] Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral Strategy: Short - term edible oils lack positive drivers, but the downward space is limited. There may be a technical rebound, but the rebound height may also be limited. Consider short - term long positions on dips or high - selling and low - buying range operations. - Arbitrage Strategy: Observe. - Option Strategy: Observe. [33] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking - Malaysian Palm Oil Supply and Demand: Data on monthly production, exports, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil are presented, showing trends over multiple years. [37][38] - Indonesian Palm Oil Market: Data on monthly production, exports, and inventory of Indonesian palm oil are provided, with historical comparison. [44] - International Soybean Oil Market: Data on NOPA US soybean crushing volume, NOPA US soybean oil monthly inventory, Brazilian soybean monthly crushing volume, Brazilian soybean oil monthly inventory, Argentine soybean monthly crushing, and Argentine soybean oil inventory are included. [46] - Indian Edible Oil Supply and Demand: Data on Indian edible oil monthly consumption, soybean oil monthly import, edible oil monthly import, and port inventory are shown. [47][48] - Domestic Market Data: Data on domestic rapeseed oil import profit, 24 - degree palm oil import profit, soybean oil supply and demand (including weekly crushing volume, consumption, and trading volume), palm oil supply and demand (including monthly import, monthly shipment, and weekly trading volume), rapeseed oil supply and demand (including weekly crushing volume, import volume, and monthly consumption), edible oil spot basis (including first - grade soybean oil, 24 - degree palm oil, and domestic third - grade rapeseed oil), and edible oil commercial inventory (including soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and total edible oil) are presented. [57][60]