2026年展望系列三：政府债供给压力持续

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a fixed - income report released on November 24, 2025, written by analyst Liang Weichao and research assistant Wang Yi [1][2] Group 2: 2025 Government Bond Supply Review - In 2025, the deficit - to - GDP ratio was increased to 4%, resulting in a significant increase in government bond supply. As of the end of November, the cumulative government bond issuance was about 24.08 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 13.23 trillion yuan. It is estimated that the full - year issuance will reach 26.31 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 13.85 trillion yuan [3][11][12] - The issuance of government bonds in 2025 was generally fast. The issuance of national debt from January to November was at a relatively fast pace compared to the same period in the past five years. The issuance of local government bonds was more balanced, and the progress accelerated again in the fourth quarter [12] Group 3: 2026 Government Bond Supply Outlook 3.1 Fiscal Policy and Overall Supply - In 2026, the fiscal policy will remain proactive, with a stable total bond - issuance volume and a focus on quality and efficiency improvement. The deficit - to - GDP ratio is expected to remain at around 4%, the deficit scale is about 5.95 trillion yuan, and the special bond quota is expected to increase to 4.8 trillion yuan. The scale of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is expected to increase to about 1.8 trillion yuan, and the annual debt - resolution arrangement is expected to remain at 2 trillion yuan. The estimated general deficit scale in 2026 is about 14.55 trillion yuan, corresponding to a general deficit - to - GDP ratio of about 9.8% [4][14] - The total government bond supply in 2026 is about 25 trillion yuan, and the net financing target is 14.42 trillion yuan, remaining at a historically high level but with limited impact [5] 3.2 National Debt - The total national debt issuance in 2026 is expected to be 13.9 trillion yuan, a decrease from the previous year due to reduced maturity pressure. The net financing target is about 6.9 trillion yuan, a slight increase from 2025. The maturity pressure is expected to be about 7 trillion yuan [4][17][18] - The issuance progress of national debt in 2026 is expected to be more gradual than in 2025. The supply shock in the first quarter will ease year - on - year. The net financing peak may be concentrated in the third and fourth quarters [20] 3.3 Local Government Bonds - The total issuance of local government bonds in 2026 is expected to be 11.12 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous year. The new local government bond scale is expected to be about 5.72 trillion yuan. The ordinary refinancing bond issuance is expected to be 3.12 trillion yuan, and the special refinancing bond issuance is expected to be 2.29 trillion yuan [23] - June and August 2026 are the peak repayment months for local government bonds. The issuance rhythm may be more front - loaded, with supply peaks in the first and second quarters [24][27] Group 4: Policy Coordination and Uncertainties - In 2026, the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies will be more effective. The central bank will continue to release medium - and long - term liquidity to ease the supply shock, and the fiscal side will pay more attention to structural investment and debt - resolution rhythm [5] - Uncertainties in government bond supply in 2026 mainly include the demand for special treasury bonds and new arrangements after the debt - resolution quota is used up. The special treasury bonds may have new uses, and the debt - resolution pressure in some local areas remains high, especially the problem of enterprise accounts receivable [32]