宏观金融数据日报-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the stock index's oscillatory adjustment, and the stock index is expected to rise further when a new driving force emerges. The bottom - support function of Central Huijin provides a buffer for the index, and the downside risk is expected to be controllable. In the short term, attention can be focused on overseas liquidity change signals and whether domestic policies will be implemented ahead of schedule [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate and Bond Market - Interest Rate Changes: DROO1 closed at 1.32 with a - 4.43bp change, DR007 at 1.44 with a - 4.49bp change, GC001 at 1.49 with a 43.50bp change, GC007 at 1.55 with a 6.50bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with a - 0.10bp change, and LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change. The 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds closed at 1.40, 1.59, and 1.82 respectively, with changes of 0.15bp, 0.26bp, and 0.51bp. The 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.06 with a - 4.00bp change [4] - Central Bank Operations: Last week, the central bank conducted 1676 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations. With 1122 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net injection was 1354 billion yuan. Considering the 120 billion yuan of treasury cash time deposits maturing, the net injection (including treasury cash) was 1234 billion yuan. This week, 1676 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 900 billion yuan of MLF maturing on Tuesday and 300 billion yuan of 182 - day outright reverse repurchases maturing on Friday [4][5] 3.2 Stock Index Market - Stock Index Performance: On the day, the CSI 300 closed at 4454 with a - 2.44% change, the SSE 50 at 2956 with a - 1.74% change, the CSI 500 at 6817 with a - 3.46% change, and the CSI 1000 at 7068 with a - 3.72% change. Last week, the CSI 300 fell 3.77% to 4453.6, the SSE 50 fell 2.72% to 2955.9, the CSI 500 fell 5.78% to 6817.4, and the CSI 1000 fell 5.8% to 7067.7. The Shenwan primary industry index coefficients all declined, with power equipment (- 10.5%), comprehensive (- 9.2%), basic chemicals (- 7.5%), commercial retail (- 7.2%), and steel (- 7%) leading the decline [6] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 29.8%, 29.7%, 40.9%, and 52.5% respectively, while the open interest of IF and IH decreased by 0.7% and 2.8%, and that of IC and IM increased by 3.8% and 10.2% respectively. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 155.06 billion yuan compared with the previous week [6] - Reasons for Market Movement: On Friday, the stock index opened low and closed low, mainly affected by the intensified impact of overseas markets. The US non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, increasing the divergence on whether the Fed will cut interest rates in December, and the technology sector represented by NVIDIA faced doubts, leading to concerns about the continuation of the technology stock market. Currently, the A - share market lacks a clear driving force, trading volume is shrinking, and economic data in October is under pressure. Policy support is still needed [7] 3.3 Futures Premium and Discount - IF Premium and Discount: The premium rates of the next - month, next - quarter, and current - quarter contracts are 7.95%, 3.94%, and 4.07% respectively [8] - IH Premium and Discount: The premium rates of the next - month, next - quarter, and current - quarter contracts are 4.49%, 1.80%, and 1.36% respectively [8] - IC Premium and Discount: The premium rates of the next - month, next - quarter, and current - quarter contracts are 9.76%, 9.69%, and 10.81% respectively [8] - IM Premium and Discount: The premium rates of the next - month, next - quarter, and current - quarter contracts are 9.83%, 11.69%, and 12.25% respectively [8]