集运日报：现货价格短期见顶盘面连续回落盘面回撤至区间可尝试补仓关注12月运价支撑逻辑-20251124

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Spot prices have peaked in the short term, and the futures market has declined continuously. It is recommended to try to add positions when the futures price pulls back to a certain range, and pay attention to the freight rate support logic in December [1] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] - The market is in a fierce long - short game, the spot freight rate has stabilized, there is no obvious bullish information, and the futures market continues to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content Freight Rate Index - On November 17, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1357.67 points, down 9.8% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1238.42 points, down 6.9% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1393.56 points, down 57.82 points from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 1367 USD/TEU, down 3.53% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1645 USD/FEU, down 9.76% from the previous period [2] - On November 21, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 946.44 points, down 5.33% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 951.65 points, down 2.83% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 955.93 points, down 9.17% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1122.79 points, up 2.6% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1432.96 points, up 2.1% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 850.96 points, up 0.6% from the previous period [2] Economic Data - In October, the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9, the service industry PMI preliminary value was 51.2, and the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7. The Sentix investor confidence index's previous value was - 9.2, and the predicted value was - 8.5 [2] - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [3] - In October, the US S&P Global service industry PMI preliminary value was 55.2, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2, and the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 [3] Futures Market - On November 21, the main contract 2602 closed at 1556.1, down 3.2%, with a trading volume of 28,700 lots and an open interest of 43,400 lots, an increase of 1440 lots from the previous day [3] Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - preferring investors, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, try to add positions when the futures price pulls back to the range, and not hold losing positions. Set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic and has large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises to a high level, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [4] Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin of the company for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4]