纯碱、玻璃期货品种周报-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soda ash futures market is in a volatile stage. The core contradiction of high supply and weak demand remains unresolved, and the price center has shifted downwards. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - The float glass market is in a weak and volatile trend. The supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and the short - term weak situation is difficult to change. It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [31]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. The domestic soda ash market was generally stable last week. The supply contracted due to some device overhauls, but it was still abundant. The demand was divided, with light soda demand relatively stable and heavy soda demand continuously weak. Coal cost increase and industry losses provided support for prices. The market was in a game between weak reality and strong cost, and it was expected to maintain a narrow - range shock in the short term. The soda ash futures price oscillated downward, and the main contract fell below the key point. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend last week. Light soda prices rose slightly, and heavy soda prices remained stable. Supply contracted but demand was stable, with obvious cost support. It was expected to continue narrow - range consolidation under the oversupply pattern. The futures were in a tug - of - war, and it was expected that the operating range of soda ash 2601 was 1100 - 1250 [11]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The domestic soda ash market remained stable last week. Light soda demand was stable, and heavy soda demand was weak. Supply decreased slightly due to overhauls but was still abundant. Cost support and enterprises' willingness to stabilize prices were obvious. The market was in a game between weak reality and strong cost, and it was expected to continue to oscillate in the short term. The expected operating range of soda ash 2601 was 1100 - 1250 [12]. 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include China's weekly soda ash开工率, production, light - soda inventory, heavy - soda inventory, basis, and ammonia - soda process production cost in North China [13][17][19]. Float Glass Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The float glass market was in a weak and volatile trend. The domestic float glass market declined weakly last week, with prices in various regions generally falling by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The supply was generally abundant, and downstream demand was continuously weak. Enterprises' shipment pressure increased, and most adopted price - cut promotions, but the transactions were mainly low - priced resources. The overall inventory was still in an accumulating trend. The supply - demand contradiction in the futures market was prominent, and the short - term weak situation was difficult to change. It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see, and pay attention to inventory destocking and policy trends in the follow - up [31]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The domestic float glass market was weak last week, with prices stable with a slight decline. Supply was sufficient but downstream orders were limited. Manufacturers mainly focused on reducing inventory and shipping. Cost provided support but the market lacked positive factors. The futures market was in a weak and volatile trend [34]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The float glass market was weak last week, with spot prices generally falling. Supply was abundant while demand was weak. Enterprises carried out price - cut promotions, and the overall inventory pressure remained. The futures market declined unilaterally, and the supply - demand contradiction was prominent. It was expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [35]. 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include China's weekly float glass production,开工率, production cost and production profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, basis, and ending inventory [37][40][44].