橡胶板块2025年11月第3周报-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the rubber market in the week of November 2025, covering aspects such as price trends, supply and demand, inventory, and downstream consumption. It also provides trading strategies and discusses the impact of events like African rubber becoming a substitute for NR futures and Thailand's abnormal weather. Overall, the market shows complex trends with both positive and negative factors affecting different segments of the rubber industry [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Supply - Demand Analysis - Price: Natural rubber in Qingdao (Thai mixed) was reported at 14,620 yuan/ton (-36 yuan/ton), and Shanghai full - latex at 14,850 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton). For cis - butadiene rubber, Shandong Daqing BR9000 was at 10,530 yuan/ton (+160 yuan/ton) [2]. - Supply: Yunnan's natural rubber production stopped early, and continuous rainfall in southern Thailand led to higher overseas raw material prices. For cis - butadiene rubber, Zhenhua restarted, Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance continued, and Maoming Petrochemical will start a 50 - day maintenance soon [2]. - Demand: Tire production decreased overall, with semi - steel tire production at 69.36% (-3.63%) and full - steel tire production at 62.04% (-2.25%). The end - market resisted price increases, and trading weakened [2]. - Inventory: China's natural rubber social inventory was 106.2 tons (+0.5 tons), and cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprise inventory was 3.15 tons (+0.07 tons, +2.24%) [2]. 3.2 Key Events - Thailand's Rainfall: On the 19th, the weighted rainfall of natural rubber production reached 55.52mm/day, a new high in nearly a year. The market may not have priced in the extreme weather [9]. - Warehouse Receipts: The inventory of SHFE RU contracts decreased by 50.2% to 7.87 tons after centralized cancellation, reaching a new low since November 2012, which is favorable for natural rubber [22]. - African Rubber as Substitute: African rubber will be a substitute for the NR contract. The key lies in its premium or discount. A larger discount has less impact on existing contracts, while a smaller discount or par value may attract more deliveries and impact the NR contract's pricing [27]. 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - Single - side Trading: Consider short - selling the RU main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at 15,280 points. For the NR main 01 contract, also consider short - selling and set a stop - loss at 12,285 points. Hold a wait - and - see attitude for the BR main 01 contract [4]. - Arbitrage: Consider intervening in the BR2601 - RU2601 (2 - to - 1) spread at - 4,850 points and set a stop - loss at - 4,910 points [4]. - Options: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]. 3.4 Downstream Consumption - Stock Market and Index: As of November 2025, the China Securities 1000 Index rose for 7 consecutive months, reaching 7,506 points, a year - on - year increase of 45.1%. In November 2025, the European automotive industry index rose slightly to - 29.7 points, a year - on - year increase of 39.9 points, and also increased year - on - year for 5 consecutive months [65]. - Electricity Consumption: In September 2025, domestic rubber and plastic industry electricity consumption increased for 4 consecutive months, reaching 17.71 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.9%, with the growth rate hitting a new high since January 2024 [65]. - Tire Production: In September 2025, the cumulative production of domestic and foreign tires increased by 1.5% year - on - year, with a smaller increase than in August [65]. 3.5 Inventory Situation - Qingdao Port: As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 45.26 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.31 tons (0.70%). The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.76% to 6.66 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 1.13% to 38.6 tons [71]. - Mixed Base Spread: In October, domestic mixed rubber imports decreased by 10.2% year - on - year, which is favorable for the mixed base spread. In September, global automobile sales increased by 9.1% year - on - year, also favorable for the mixed base spread [78].