宏观经济展望：全球经济慢复苏，十五五引领新方向

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The IMF has slightly raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, with developed economies expected to grow at approximately 1.5% and emerging markets at over 4%[14] - The UAE's economic growth forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 4.8%, up from earlier predictions[14] - The US economy is projected to grow by 2.0% in 2025, slightly above the average for developed countries[14] Group 2: Domestic Economic Trends - China's GDP growth for 2025 is expected to be around 4.8%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from 2024, with further decline to 4.2% in 2026[14] - Fixed asset investment in China turned negative in September 2025, dropping from a positive 0.5% in August to -1.7% in October[49] - Real estate development investment in China has decreased by 14.7% year-on-year as of October 2025[49] Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Global inflation is expected to ease, but the US still faces inflation risks above target levels, while other regions maintain moderate inflation[15] - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut cycle, reducing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%[30] - The probability of the Fed not lowering rates in December 2025 has risen to 51.4%, indicating market uncertainty[32] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market may benefit from the Fed's rate cuts, as liquidity improves and capital flows to higher-yield emerging markets[7] - Long-term investment in gold is recommended, with prices expected to rise further during the global rate cut cycle, currently above $4000 per ounce[8]