玉米系数据日报-20251124

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Corn Series Data Daily Report [3] - Researcher: Huang Xianglan from the Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [4] - Report Date: November 24, 2025 [4] Group 2: Price and Data Information Spot Prices - Corn Spot: Prices in various regions on November 21st remained mostly stable, with some exceptions like Inner Mongolia - Tongliao up 20 yuan/ton and Inner Mongolia - Chifeng up 30 yuan/ton. For example, Jinzhou Port FOB price was 2220 yuan/ton, and Heilongjiang - Harbin was 2030 yuan/ton [5]. - Corn Starch Spot: The price in Jilin Province was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - Wheat Spot: Prices in Henan, Anhui, and Jiangsu were 2534 yuan/ton, 2518 yuan/ton, and 2525 yuan/ton respectively, with Jiangsu up 2 yuan/ton [5]. Futures Prices - Corn Main Contract Closing Price: 2241 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan, with a C01 - 05 spread of -57 [5]. - Corn Starch Main Contract Closing Price: 2590 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan, with a CS01 - 05 spread of -66 [5]. International Data - US Corn Closing Price: 437.75 cents per bushel, with an imported US corn duty - paid price of 2149.25 yuan/ton and an estimated profit of 220.75 yuan/ton. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.11 [5]. Spread Data - Starch - Corn (Main Continuous): 349; Starch - Corn (Jilin Spot Average): 440 [5]. Inventory Data - North Port Corn Inventory: 117.0 million tons; Guangdong Port Corn Inventory - Domestic: 27.3 million tons; Deep - processing Corn Inventory - Northeast: 177.5 million tons; Guangdong Port Corn Inventory - Foreign: 35.5 million tons; Deep - processing Corn Inventory - North China: 75.4 million tons [5] Group 3: Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis Supply - Northeast production areas face concentrated supply pressure later, with attention on the selling pressure from December to January. The 25/26 planting cost continues to decline, the sown area is slightly reduced, the yield per unit is good, and a bumper harvest is expected. Imported grain policy restrictions continue, and the supply of imported grains is shrinking [5]. Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies aim to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term supply. Enterprises with low inventory have a rigid demand for replenishing corn, and deep - processing enterprises have seasonal inventory - building needs. Channel traders have a strong purchasing willingness [5]. Inventory - Due to good shipping demand, the inventory accumulation speed at North Ports is slow, while the corn inventory at South Ports is rising. With the supplement of imported grains, the overall grain inventory is increasing. With the addition of new - season corn, ports are expected to be in the inventory - accumulation stage. Feed enterprise inventory is low, and deep - processing corn is seasonally accumulating inventory [5]. Group 4: Core View - In the short term, factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, logistics tension in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory lead to a temporary supply shortage, postponing the selling pressure. Before the supply pressure is fully released, the market's ability to accept high - priced corn is limited. The futures price is expected to have limited rebound and will face pressure tests later. Attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress, logistics, and weather [13]