如何看待近期A股科技板块回调？

Report Overview - Report Name: Credit Business Weekly Report - How to View the Recent Correction in the A-share Technology Sector - Report Date: November 24, 2025 - Analyst: Xu Chi, Zhang Wenyu - Research Institution: Zhongtai Securities Research Institute Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current correction in the A-share technology sector is mainly due to the adjustment of US AI leaders, the year - end defensive strategy of institutional funds, and the decline in trading motivation of leveraged funds during the policy vacuum period. However, the technology market is far from over and is expected to continue after a short - term correction [6][7]. - Mid - term, the A - share market still has upward potential under multiple factors, and investors are advised to make mid - term layouts around four main lines: Hong Kong technology leaders, vertical applications brought by the AI technological revolution, innovative drugs and medical AI, and high - dividend asset allocation [7]. Market Review Market Performance - Last week, most major market indices declined, with the ChiNext Index having the largest decline of - 6.15%, and the Shanghai 50 Index having the smallest decline of - 2.72% [8][9]. - Among the large - scale industry indices, the Telecommunication Services Index and the Daily Consumption Index performed relatively well, with weekly declines of - 1.24% and - 2.28% respectively; the Materials Index and the Healthcare Index performed weakly, with declines of - 7.49% and - 6.79% respectively [8][9]. - Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, no industry rose. The industries with smaller declines were banks, media, and food and beverage, with declines of 0.89%, 1.25%, and 1.44% respectively; the industries with larger declines were power equipment, basic chemicals, and commercial retail, with declines of 10.54%, 7.47%, and 7.24% respectively [8][14][17]. Trading Heat - The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A Index last week was 1865.036 billion yuan (previous value: 2043.827 billion yuan), at a relatively high historical level (85.60% of the three - year historical quantile) [8][21]. Valuation Tracking - As of November 21, 2025, the valuation (PE_TTM) of the Wind All - A Index was 21.27, a decrease of - 0.93 from the previous week, at the 86.70% quantile of the past five - year history. None of the 30 Shenwan primary industries saw a valuation (PE_TTM) recovery [8][28]. Market Observation Reasons for the A - share Technology Sector Correction - The adjustment of the A - share technology sector is mainly due to the adjustment of US AI leaders. The high valuation of US AI leaders has led to discussions about the bubble, and the decrease in the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has increased volatility. The A - share technology sector is affected by the US due to industrial chain correlation and valuation benchmarking [6]. - At the end of the year, institutions usually adopt a defensive strategy to lock in annual returns, which has a greater impact on high - valuation technology sectors such as electronics and communications [6]. - The possibility of intensive policy introduction in the near future is low, which may lead to a decline in the trading motivation of leveraged funds [6]. Outlook for the Technology Market - The technology market is far from over. The probability of a fundamental reversal of the US AI industry is low, and it will still provide a large valuation growth space for A - share comparable companies. The current development stage of the A - share AI sector roughly corresponds to the period from 2023 - 2024 in the US when funds spread from hardware to applications [7]. Capital Flow Analysis - Last week, funds from different channels were still divided, with both withdrawal and bottom - fishing. ETF and northbound funds had a net inflow on a weekly basis, especially on Friday. The departure of major industrial shareholders slowed down, while leveraged funds showed signs of leaving [7]. Investment Recommendations - Mid - term, the A - share market still has upward potential under multiple factors. Investors are advised to make mid - term layouts around four main lines: Hong Kong technology leaders, vertical applications brought by the AI technological revolution, innovative drugs and medical AI, and high - dividend asset allocation, which can be extended to stable - income products such as fixed - income + quantitative products [7].