长江期货粕类油脂周报-20251124

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market: With the acceleration of soybean purchases, prices have fallen from their highs. The US soybean market lacks positive support, and the smooth sowing and growth in South America have put pressure on prices. The domestic supply is expected to improve, but the demand remains strong. The market is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the situation of domestic purchases and the auction of soybean by Sinograin [6]. - The edible oil market: The market is expected to continue to be weak and volatile. The export of Malaysian palm oil is poor, and the production is increasing. The US biodiesel has negative news, and the export potential of US soybeans is questioned. The market is under pressure, but there are still potential positive factors. In the long - term, the market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the implementation of biodiesel policies and weather conditions [82]. Summary of Each Section Section 1: Soybean Meal 1.1 Period and Spot Market - As of November 21, the spot price in East China was 2970 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the M2601 contract closed at 3012 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 01 - 40 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [6][8]. 1.2 Supply - The USDA November supply - demand report lowered the US soybean price to 53 cents/bushel, with the ending stocks at 290 million bushels. As of November 15, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 69.0%, and as of November 19, the new soybean sowing progress in Argentina was 24.6%. In November, the domestic soybean arrivals were normal, and domestic oil mills actively purchased ships for December - January, increasing domestic supply [6]. 1.3 Demand - In 2025, the domestic breeding profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the feed demand, with an increase of over 7% year - on - year. The proportion of soybean meal in the formula increased, and the demand for soybean meal in the fourth quarter is expected to increase by over 5% year - on - year. As of the latest data, the national oil mill soybean inventory decreased to 747.71 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory slightly decreased to 99.29 million tons [6]. 1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season was raised to 1150 cents/bushel, and the bottom price was estimated to be around 1000 cents/bushel. Based on current quotes, the domestic soybean meal cost was calculated to be 3185 yuan/ton [6]. 1.5 Market Outlook - The US soybean market is expected to be weak and volatile. The domestic M2601 contract is under pressure, and attention should be paid to domestic purchases and Sinograin's soybean auction [6]. Section 2: Edible Oil 2.1 Period and Spot Market - As of the week of November 21, the palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices all declined. The decline was mainly due to factors such as poor exports and increased production of Malaysian palm oil, negative news about US biodiesel, and doubts about the export potential of US soybeans [82][83]. 2.2 Palm Oil - The MPOB October report showed an increase in both supply and demand of Malaysian palm oil, and the ending stocks rose to 2.46 million tons. In November, exports were weak, and production increased, so Malaysia may continue to accumulate stocks. In China, the palm oil inventory increased to 650,000 tons as of November 14. The market is still looking forward to the import demand from India and the export reduction in Indonesia in 2026 [82]. 2.3 Soybean Oil - The USDA November report had a neutral - to - negative impact on US soybeans. The market is concerned about US soybean exports and the implementation of biodiesel policies. In China, the soybean arrivals have decreased since October, and the soybean oil inventory decreased slightly to 1.1475 million tons as of November 14. In the long - term, the soybean supply is expected to be relatively sufficient [82]. 2.4 Rapeseed Oil - Due to the lack of breakthroughs in China - Canada relations, the rapeseed supply in the fourth quarter is tight. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 450,200 tons as of November 14. However, with the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the continuous state reserve sales, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve marginally in December [82]. 2.5 Market Outlook - In the short - term, the domestic edible oil market is at high - level adjustment risk, but the potential positive factors limit the adjustment range. Palm oil is relatively weak, and rapeseed oil is relatively strong. In the long - term, the market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the implementation of biodiesel policies and weather conditions [82].