国债期货周报：风偏未改善，国债震荡偏弱-20251124

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints The bond market this week showed characteristics of weak and stable oscillations, being repeatedly driven by the stock - bond seesaw and sentiment. The market is influenced by factors such as macro - policies, inflation, fiscal and financial conditions, and central bank operations. The overall trend is weakly oscillating [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis Macro - economic Aspect - On October 27, the central bank restarted open - market treasury bond trading operations, releasing a clear signal to stabilize expectations. On October 30, the China - US economic and trade teams reached consensus on three aspects, including resolving the TikTok issue, the US suspending relevant investigations and export control rules, and canceling the "fentanyl tariff". China will continue to suspend the 24% additional tariff on US goods for one year and retain the 10% tariff [1]. - In October, the CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year [1]. Fiscal Aspect - From January to October 2025, fiscal operations showed the characteristics of "moderate revenue recovery, a slowdown in expenditure rhythm, and a co - existence of fund contraction and a slowdown in special bonds". General public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with tax revenue improving for eight consecutive months, but non - tax revenue dragging down the overall growth rate. General public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year, slowing down for three consecutive months, mainly due to insufficient follow - up force from the front - loaded fiscal efforts in the first half of the year and weak infrastructure spending [2]. Financial Aspect - At the end of October, social financing and credit maintained low - level expansion, while government bond issuance remained strong, and the financing demand of enterprises and residents was weak. M1 declined, and the M2 - M1 gap widened, reflecting weak business vitality in the real economy and a return from current to time deposits. Interest - rate products faced upward pressure on long - term yields and a steeper yield curve [2]. Central Bank Operations - On November 21, 2025, the central bank conducted 375 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity bidding [2]. Money Market - The main term repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, and 14D were 1.32%, 1.44%, and 1.53% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. Market Conditions - On November 21, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.46 yuan, 105.86 yuan, 108.43 yuan, and 115.57 yuan respectively. Their weekly price changes were - 0.02%, - 0.05%, - 0.05%, and - 0.75% respectively [3]. - The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.01 yuan, 0.03 yuan, 0.00 yuan, and 0.17 yuan respectively [3]. Strategies - Unilateral Strategy: With the decline in repurchase rates and the oscillating treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is neutral [4]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Pay attention to the widening of the 2512 basis spread [4]. - Hedging Strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - position holders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].