纸浆周报-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market is currently in a state where port inventories are continuously accumulating, and with the expectation of increased future arrivals, market sentiment has significantly declined. Hedging positions have gradually entered the market. The fundamentals of pulp are relatively stable, and the spot market transactions are steady. In the short - term, it is difficult for factory demand to show significant improvement. The far - month contracts are facing pressure after reaching the hedging points of Ural and European softwood pulp. As port inventories continue to accumulate and future arrivals are expected to increase, market sentiment has clearly cooled down. Hedging positions have entered the market one after another, the intention to register warrants has increased, and long - position confidence has weakened, leading to a reduction in positions and an exit from the market. It is expected that pulp will enter a range - bound stage [20]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1 Pulp Overview 1.1 Supply - side - Domestic Production: In the week of November 21, 2025, the production of domestic hardwood pulp was 230,000 tons, a slight increase of 0.10 tons compared to the previous week, with a year - to - date decrease of 0.87%. The production of chemimechanical pulp was 237,000 tons, an increase of 0.10 tons from the previous week [11]. - Imports: In October 2025, China's total pulp imports were 2.618 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. The cumulative imports for the year were 29.679 billion tons, a year - to - date increase of 4.8%. Affected by the decrease in working days in October and possible vessel - schedule control by some foreign suppliers, domestic imports declined more than expected in October. However, overseas shipments did not show significant changes. Hardwood pulp shipments increased in September, and it is expected that arrivals will increase in November [11]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - Demand: Terminal demand remained unchanged, and downstream production was stable. In the week of November 20, 2025, the production of various downstream paper products was relatively stable. It is expected that downstream production will be supported during the year - end small peak season [13]. - Inventory: Port inventories were in a state of oscillating accumulation due to increased arrivals and rigid - demand procurement from downstream. Warehouse receipt inventories were in a state of destocking. With the relatively low price of the November contract, the intention to buy for delivery increased, and warehouse receipts were gradually cancelled, but the pressure of remaining old warehouse receipts was still large [13]. 1.3 Price and Spread - Quotations: Market research shows that after the Chongqing ordering meeting, external quotations are expected to rise, with both softwood and hardwood pulp increasing by $20. - Spot Prices: After the price increase, spot transactions weakened, and market sentiment cooled down. With the rapid accumulation of port inventories, some softwood pulp spot prices were gradually reduced, while hardwood pulp prices were relatively firm due to arrival schedules and rigid - demand procurement. - Futures Prices: The pulp fundamentals were relatively stable, and spot transactions were steady. The far - month contracts faced pressure after reaching the hedging points of Ural and European softwood pulp. With the continuous accumulation of port inventories and the expectation of increased future arrivals, market sentiment clearly declined, and hedging positions entered the market, leading to a decline in the futures market [15]. 1.4 Cost and Profit - Cost: The cost of domestic hardwood pulp was relatively stable, while the import cost of pulp was expected to increase in the next round. - Profit: The profit of domestic pulp was expected to increase slightly, while the profit of imported pulp was expected to be further squeezed. The profit of paper products was expected to be relatively stable [17]. 1.5 Strategy Recommendation - Given the current situation where there are no obvious contradictions in the market, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach. In a wide - range oscillating pattern, if one holds deliverable spot goods with appropriate costs, they can sell call options or accumulate put options on the 03 contract when prices are high. If one wants to purchase goods at a low price, they can sell put options or accumulate call options when prices are low to achieve cost - reduction and high - point hedging [20]. Part 2 Pulp Balance Sheet The report provides a detailed pulp balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including supply (domestic production, imports), demand (downstream production, pulp consumption), and inventory (port inventory, warehouse receipt inventory) data, as well as their cumulative values and year - on - year changes [23]. Part 3 Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Information on global pulp shipments is presented, but no specific data is provided in the summary for brevity. - Demand and Inventory: Information on European pulp apparent demand and inventory is presented, but no specific data is provided in the summary for brevity. 3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply - side: - Imports: The report provides data on the import volume of various types of pulp (softwood, hardwood, chemimechanical pulp, etc.) and wood chips (softwood chips, hardwood chips) from 2022 to 2025, including monthly and cumulative data and year - on - year changes [42][45][65]. - Production Capacity and Planned Investments: A large number of domestic paper - making enterprises' production capacity expansion and new project investment plans are listed, including the production capacity, location, and expected commissioning time of each project [98]. - Demand - side: - Apparent Demand: Data on the apparent demand of various types of paper products (toilet paper, offset paper, coated paper, white cardboard) from 2022 to 2025 are provided [137][138][140][142]. - Export and Import: Data on the import, export, and cumulative import and export volume of various types of paper products from 2022 to 2025 are provided [101][118][127]. - Inventory - side: Data on the total inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, and port - specific inventory of domestic pulp from 2022 to 2025 are provided [147][150][153]. Part 4 Cost and Profit - Import Cost and Profit: Information on the import cost and profit of pulp is provided, but no specific data is provided in the summary for brevity. - Domestic Pulp Production Cost and Profit: Information on the production cost and profit of domestic pulp is provided, but no specific data is provided in the summary for brevity. Part 5 Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - External Quotations: Information on the external quotations of pulp is provided, but no specific data is provided in the summary for brevity. - Seasonal Price and Spread: The report provides seasonal price and spread data for various types of pulp (Silver Star, Russian Needle, Goldfish, etc.) from 2022 to 2025, including price seasonal charts, spread seasonal charts, and basis charts [177][179][183].